The country’s milled rice production for marketing year (MY) 2025-2026 is expected to increase by 2 percent to 12.25 million metric tons (MT) from the previous marketing year’s 12 million MT, a report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), through its Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in Manila, projected.
In a report dated March 28, 2025, FAS Manila said that the increase would be due to favorable weather conditions and an increase in government funding for the rice industry, which would also lessen rice imports.
FAS Manila has forecast Philippine rice imports to decline by 1.9 percent in MY 2025-2026 to 5.2 million MT, from the previous 5.3 million MT with the expected rebound in local production, higher stock carryover, and the imposition of the maximum suggested retail price on imported rice.
“While FAS Manila estimates rice imports to decline in market year 2025-2026… Vietnam and Thailand [are expected] to remain as the key suppliers of rice to the Philippine market in market year 2025-2026. This is due to established trade relationships, competitive prices, and geographical proximity of Vietnam and Thailand to the Philippines,” the report further said.
It added that the Philippine rice consumption for market year 2025-2026 will increase by 0.6 percent to 17.30 million MT compared to the previous 17.2 million MT, largely driven by steady population growth, moderating inflation levels, and growing income levels.
USDA’s marketing year starts in July and ends in June of the following year.
Earlier, the Philippine Department of Agriculture said that because of an expected better weather and additional input support to farmers, the country’s rice production will rise to a record-high 20.46 million MT of palay in 2025, from 2023’s 20.06 million MT production, the current record-high for the country.
Meanwhile, the FAS Manila report stated that the Philippine corn production for the same period would increase but would not keep up with demand, resulting in a possible increase in corn imports.
The report said that corn production for marketing year 2025-2026 would likely increase by 0.6 percent to 8.2 million MT from the previous marketing year’s 8.15 million MT.
It said the factors pushing local corn production up include more favorable weather conditions, continued government support programs to improve corn yields, and increasing demand for animal feeds.
FAS Manila has forecast corn imports to increase by 7.4 percent to 1.75 million MT in market year 2025-2026 compared to the previous 1.63 million MT.
The report said that an increase in corn imports would be needed to fill the supply gap, as demand for food and feed corn would continue to outpace local production. It noted that sources of Philippine corn imports have tended to vary, depending on prevailing global prices of each supplying country.
In terms of corn consumption, FAS Manila said the country will have a 1.4-percent higher feed and residual, food, seed and industrial corn consumption in market year 2025-2026 at 2.23 million MT compared to the previous 2.2 million MT.
The report said increase in population has likewise increased the demand for corn-based products such as cornstarch, corn oil and syrups.
In terms of corn use for animal feeds, it is seen to increase by 2 percent to 7.75 million MT in market year 2025-2026 from 7.6 million MT due to a projected increase in feed demand from the broiler, layer and pet food industries.
Amid such projections, the Samahang Industriya ng Agrikultura (SINAG) disagreed with FAS Manila’s views on the country’s likely corn imports volume.
“We’re not sure about the need to import corn. The main user of corn – the hog industry, still has a flat growth volume in terms of production as it is still being affected by ASF (African swine fever),” said Jayson Cainglet, SINAG executive director.
Danilo Fausto, president of the Philippine Chamber of Agriculture and Food Inc., agreed with the USDA projections on rice but not entirely for corn.
“I will agree with the observation of the USDA on rice production, since we do not expect El Niño and La Niña to affect us this year. On corn, we have a bigger gap in supply for corn that needs to be filled up to be able to meet demand. Any increase in production of corn this year will not show a significant narrowing of the supply gap, needed to meet demand,” Fausto said.
