International air travel in the Philippines is expected to recover to pre-pandemic level by 2026.
This developed as the Department of Tourism (DOT) yesterday said it has attained 80 percent of its full-year target of 4.8 million in tourist arrivals as of September 19.
Samuel David, country manager of the International Air Travel Association (IATA), in a forum organized by the European Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines yesterday said air travel is facing headwinds posed by global economic developments including the shortage of aircraft parts and of labor as well as rising fuel prices.
“We look at the full recovery (of international air travel) in the Philippines around 2026. We might revise those numbers earlier instead of 2026 but it’s 2026 for now,” said David.
He said IATA has seen some encouraging numbers based on financial settlement systems coming from travel agents.
“There’s a value (increase in ticket sales) from last year. There are very encouraging numbers and yet we’re not quite there,” David said.
David said as of June, international passenger air traffic is at 75 percent of 2019 levels.
“Still not a problem but an opportunity, I would think,” he said.
For international air connectivity, David said the Philippines is 19 percent short of 2019.
“If we can bridge that gap, then you will have more access to locations like Cebu, Zamboanga and other areas outside of Metro Manila,” he said.
He added: “We are not without our own headwinds… even at the global level, (there are) economic uncertainties going forward.”
He said the geopolitical situation of Ukraine, coupled with hotspots forcing closure of airspace, rising fuel prices that affect ticket prices and shortage of manpower all have an impact on the prospects for growth in the region.
David said Asia-Pacific is leading the growth in international travel at a compounded annual growth rate of 4.6 percent compared to Europe which is around 2 percent.
“The recent issues involving supply chain – the lack aircraft parts – driven by the closure of a couple of aircraft parts manufacturers which did not reopen after the pandemic plus a shortage of skilled labor… all these things sort of conspired to (result to) cancellations and flight delays. Some are solvable in the near term. Others might take a little longer, but we’re getting there,” David said.
Meanwhile, DOT Secretary Christina Frasco said at the opening ceremony of the Philippine Travel Exchange in Cebu City said international tourist arrivals hit 3.8 million as of September 19, generating for the economy P316.9 billion in estimated revenue.
Tourism resurgence, she said, started in 2022 when the Philippines recorded 2.65 million international visitors, a 66 percent recovery rate from pre-pandemic level. This is higher than the 54 percent recovery rate of countries in Asia-Pacific.
Combined domestic and international receipts were recorded at $34.33 billion, a recovery rate of 67 percent, way higher than the Asean average of 28 percent.
Significant recovery of 93 percent was recorded in tourism jobs compared to their 2019 levels.
“The robust recovery benefitted the country’s GDP at 6.2 percent. Economic managers recognize tourism as the second top economic driver in the first half of the year,” Frasco said.
