Philippine share prices are likely to move sideways after last week’s shortened trading sessions, but sentiment may get a lift from the December inflation figures due out Monday.
Beyond this week, the market is seen trending lower.
The market is still operating under an environment “which signals possible downtrend in the medium to long run,” Japhet Tantiangco, analyst at Philstocks Financial Inc., said.
He added, “An inflation print within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ 2.3 percent to 3.1 percent forecast range, especially one biased toward the lower end, may give sentiment a boost [this coming] week,” Japhet Tantiangco, analyst at Philstocks Financial Inc., said over the weekend.
The inflation number will give the market a clue on the Bangko Sentral’s policy outlook.
“The local market has been showing positive signs after bouncing from its support at 6,400 last December 20, 2024. The market has been up five out of the last six trading days, Tantiangco said.
The market also managed to get past its 10-day exponential moving average which has been considered as a dynamic resistance, Tantiangco emphasized.
“However, as seen in the first trading week of the year, trading is still thin implying tepid conviction,” he said.
The Philippine Stock Exchange index closed the week at 6,603.81, up 75 points or 1.15 percent from 6,528.81 on the last trading day of 2024, with the average turnover down to P3.51 billion. The peso closed Friday at 58.20 to the dollar, down from 57.91.
“Investors may also monitor the performance of the local currency against the US Dollar. An appreciation of the peso may help lift the market while a depreciation is expected to lead to the opposite,” Tantiangco said.
Online stockbroker 2tradeasia.com, said investing plays for 2025 are set against the backdrop of numerous uncertainties in the macroeconomic level as well as company valuations.
The central themes for this year are likely to be “sector-locked and story-specific,” it said.
Defensive plays with resilient topline levels and controlled inflationary and currency risks should garner attention, according to 2tradeasia.
Value plays in the banking, consumer and power sectors are underscored in the face of upside risks, especially with best case growth scenarios, it said.
“Note that while traditionally defensives tend to have lower upside potential to compensate for the safer risk profile, the recent rout put local equities at a much more comfortable entry points and competitive cap rates,” it added.
