Stock market views GDP results ‘quite disappointing’

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Share prices on the Philippine Stock Exchange slipped and ended the morning session lower on Thursday in apparent reaction to the much awaited 2024 GDP report by the government.

The main PSEi shed17 points or 0.25 percent to 6,135.85 by 12:00 noon, from 6,153.47 when the market closed on Wednesday.

Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.6 percent in 2024, missing the government’s growth assumption of 6 to 6.5 percent for the full year.

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During the first 15 minutes of trade after the GDP report was released at 10 am, the PSEi eased 2.67 points to 6,135.75 from 6,138.42 earlier in the session before gaining ground at 6,140.85. 

Jonathan Ravelas, managing director at emanagement for Business and Marketing Services (EMBM), summed up the report as “quite disappointing.” 

“(I) Was looking at 5.8 percent for both fourth quarter and full year,” he said in an interview with Malaya Business Insight.  

“Higher inflation and elevated rates, as well as calamities, were factors that slowed the economy,” Ravelas added.

In a note on X, Emilio Neri Jr., lead economist at Bank of the Philippine Islands, said private consumption, as summarized by the household final consumption expenditures, has slowed to the “sub-5 percent print” for full-year 2024. 

The 5.2 percent rate of GDP growth in the fourth quarter was dragged by declines in agriculture output.  

 “This could lead the BSP-MB (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas-Monetary Board) to cut (rates) during their February 13 meeting if the dollar doesn’t soar,”  Nicholas Mapa, senior economist at Metropolitan Bank and Trust Co. (Metrobank), said in a separate post on X.

Mapa agreed with Neri’s view, saying today’s GDP print “probably puts pressure on Bangko Sentral to ease (policy rates) further to support growth.”

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