The Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has kept its growth forecast for the Philippines this year, but sees slower growth for the country in 2023.
According to the Asean+3 Regional Economic Outlook Quarterly Update released yesterday, AMRO has kept its growth forecast for the Philippines this year at 6.9 percent.
The country is seen to be the second fastest growing economy in the Asean+3 region, only next to Vietnam.
However, AMRO has downgraded its growth forecast for next year to 6.3 percent from the 6.5 percent projection made in July.
“All the countries are facing stronger headwinds going forward because of the slowdown in the US and maybe a recession in Europe. And because of that, the external demand is going to be much weaker,” Hoe Ee Khor, AMRO chief economist, said in a virtual briefing yesterday.
“(The) 6.3 (percent next year) is about where we think potential is. …given the stronger headwind, it will be slightly below potential. That is why we sort of kept the growth rate around that,” he added.
The inflation forecast was also revised upwards to 5.1 percent this year and four percent in 2023.
In July, the projection was 4.4 percent and 3.8 percent for this year and next, respectively.
“If there is a major recession, slowdown in the US… it could affect also remittances. And the inflation rate in the Philippines has been quite high,” Khor said.
“Although we think it should peak this month or next month and begin to come off. But it is tempering demand in the Philippines as well,” he added. – Angela Celis
