Philippine shares are poised for rangebound trading this week as investors closely monitor the ongoing US tariff negotiations and begin taking positions for President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) next week.
The local market will also start parsing through initial corporate earnings reports, expected to trickle in this week.
The benchmark PSEi concluded Friday’s session down 2.42 percent at 6,303.72, a decline from 6,459.88 a week earlier. The broader All Shares shed 2 percent to close at 3,736.24, from 3,812.53.
Foreign funds continued their retreat from the local bourse, registering net sales of P3.43 billion last week, with purchases totaling P26.21 billion against sales of P29.64 billion.
Year-to-date, foreign investors have been net sellers by P42.47 billion.
“The market remains in a wait-and-see mode as the August 1 tariff negotiation deadline set by US President Donald Trump approaches,” Michael Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., (RCBC) noted.
Markets are keen to discern if President Trump would indicate a willingness to compromise on his tariff policy.
Jonathan Ravelas, managing director at eManagement for Business and Marketing Services (eMBM), anticipates the local market will ”move sideways to down within the 6,000-6,500 levels in the near-term,” citing lingering tariff uncertainty and rising inflation concerns in the US.
“We anticipate rangebound trading on the local bourse this week amid a lack of strong catalysts,” Peter Louis Garnace, equity analyst at Unicapital Securities Inc. said. He added that the market may draw cues from developments stemming from the Trump-Marcos meeting slated for July 20-22.
Domestically, investors are expected to position ahead of President Marcos’s SONA on July 28, Garnace said, adding that the kick-off of the second-quarter earnings season will also be closely watched.
Online trading platform 2TradeAsia.com advised investors in a note to lean toward hedges and “safe harbors,” given the volatility driven by US tariff and interest rate cut uncertainties.”
“Tariff shifts and geopolitical resolutions rarely adhere to hard deadlines, and portfolios must adjust to the elevated volatility,” it said.
However, 2TradeAsia suggested that domestic growth drivers could offer “higher relative strength.“
“Beyond the upcoming earnings cycle, attention should pivot toward the potential for robust growth stories into 2026,” the platform added, highlighting “outsized public spending plans, particularly in infrastructure,” as significant catalysts.
Further Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) rate cuts could also prompt a “follow-on wave of private capital expenditures,” 2TradeAsia noted.
“The market’s dance between sectors enjoying revenue momentum and domestic policy tailwinds versus those exposed to external trade frictions or regulatory shifts have yet to crest— position accordingly and catch the wave,” 2TradeAsia concluded.
