Investors are expected to take their cues from overseas market leads this week, coming from a shortened trading period due to the Lenten break, although the upcoming economic indicators on the domestic front are seen possibly spurring some trade.
Cristina Ulang, head of research at First Metro Securities Corp., said the market will worry about the “negative impact on economic growth of emerging markets on the latest news about container port fees slapped by the US on Chinese exports.”
“But the Philippines’ relatively smaller Chinese exposure versus others will be a mitigant. And upside, will be any news of the Philippines and the Asean bloc and China tariff deal with the US,” she said.
At the close of last week’s trade on Wednesday, the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) settled at 6,134.62, up 0.8.58 percent from the preceding week’s 6,082.44.
On a year-to-date basis, the PSEi was down 6 percent, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael Ricafort said, marking the index at 6,528.79 at the end of 2024.
From the PSEi’s record closing high of 9,058.62 hit on Jan. 20, 2018, the index is now down 32.27 percent.
At the end of last week’s trade, “market sentiment was still partly supported by the 90-day pause on Trump’s reciprocal tariffs since April 9, 2025, with the baseline 10 percent tariff for non-retaliating countries (in effect) for the meantime (except for the US import tariff of 145 percent on China). This signaled some softening/compromising stance on tariffs,” Ricafort said.
Wendy Estacio-Cruz, head of equity research at UniCapital Securities Corp., said the stock brokerage firm expects the index to continue trading within the 5,800 to 6,300 range this week.
Some US data were released on Maundy Thursday and Good Friday in the Philippines when trade was on a Lenten season
break, Cruz said.
Investors are expected to include the result of the data released into their investing models when trading resumes on Monday, Cruz said.
Domestically, the market is anticipating upcoming economic indicators, particularly the March balance of trade on April 30, he said. “I think we’re left with the Balance of Trade for domestic catalyst next week.”
Cruz added the BSP moved the release of the first quarter 2025 Consumer Expectations Survey Results to June instead of April to accommodate improvements in the sampling design.
Jonathan Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong and Co., said the resumption of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) easing cycle is keeping investors optimistic.
“However, President Trump’s ‘tariffying’ moves could keep the market rangebound between the 5,800 and 6,300 levels,” he said.
Online stock trading platform 2tradeasia.com said the stock market remains rangebound, with corporate earnings expected to provide some guiding force outside of “cloudy macro view.”
“Outlook remains in the low-to-mid single-digit EPS (earnings per share) growth year-on-year, but key sectors such as consumer, commercial property, etc., may surprise to the upside given better-than-expected foot traffic, easing cost pressures, and generally better margin base from the fourth quarter,” it said.
2tradeasia.com added that it remains “constructive on names with strong operating leverage and improving working capital cycles,” particularly those that stand to benefit from potentially lower real rates in the second half of the year.
“A concern in the short run as election season noise peaks is the accompanied increase in headline risk leading up to results day, which warrants some caution given the index’s recent sensitivity to political uncertainty,” it said.
2tradeasia.com, however, warned that the global backdrop of “rate path uncertainty, persistent push-pull forces in tariffs and trade policy, and sticky real yields” continue to weigh on valuations — despite a relatively benign domestic inflation setup.
“In this ‘dry’ season in local equities, stay cool and maintain discipline in trades,” it said, reminding investors to selectively pick stocks that have a low correlation between the movement of its share price and the volatility of the overall stock market, as well as those that are insulated from foreign exchange fluctuations “while waiting for better monsoons.”
