Geopolitical trade tensions and shifting global capital flows are expected to keep Philippine equities trading sideways this week.
Investors have been bracing for the July 9 expiry of US President Donald Trump’s 90-day tariff reprieve — a potential turning point in the global trade landscape.
The looming tariffs, which would target multiple US trade partners, have already injected caution into markets, with global firms reportedly accelerating supply chain adjustments to hedge against prolonged volatility.
Analysts said the local market is moving in step with these global currents, as foreign investors turn defensive and corporate earnings visibility dims.
Trump said over the weekend that he had signed letters to 12 countries detailing new tariff schedules, set to be delivered Monday, July 8. The official rollout could reignite trade uncertainty just as markets attempt to stabilize on softening inflation and potential rate cuts from major central banks.
“The uncertainty around tariffs, along with rising US government debt, is forming a wall of worry,” Jonathan Ravelas, managing director at eManagement for Business and Marketing Services (eMBM), said.
“Expect the market to move sideways to down in the 6,000–6,500 range in the near term,” he said.
The benchmark PSEi closed 0.2 percent lower last week at 6,395.57, while the broader All Shares slipped 0.72 percent to 3,764.71.
Still, foreign inflows continued, with investors buying a net P2.74 billion worth of shares — P18.85 billion in total buys versus P16.11 billion in sales.
Peter Louis Gargance, equity research analyst at Unicapital Securities Inc., said market direction this week will largely hinge on developments related to US trade policy and its broader spillover effects.
“Investors will be tracking tariff headlines closely, especially as the July 9 deadline approaches,” Gargance said.
Domestic data may also play a supporting role.
Japhet Tantiangco, research manager at Philstocks Financial Inc., said further rate cuts from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) remain on the table, particularly after the latest inflation print showed continued moderation.
“The labor market data for May, set for release on Tuesday, July 8, will also be closely watched for signals on economic momentum,” Tantiangco added. “A formal extension of the US-Philippines trade dialogue, or a de-escalation of trade tensions globally, could lift sentiment.”
Online platform 2TradeAsia.com likewise flagged broader risks. “As tariff deadlines loom, firms are facing more opaque earnings visibility and are recalibrating operations to de-risk from supply chain disruptions,” the platform said in a note. “These external pressures are reshaping investor expectations in the near term.”
