The Philippines ranked last among Asia-Pacific countries in an economic scarring scorecard released by Oxford Economics.
The country is expected to experience “large losses” amid the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic crisis.
In its research briefing released yesterday, the report said the Philippines has an overall scarring score of -1.2 percent, placing last among the 14 ranked economies.
The report said the economic scorecard considers 16 cyclical and structural factors to explain the variation of economic scarring across the region due to the pandemic.
“The COVID-19 pandemic will have a lasting negative impact on APAC economies. We forecast regional gross domestic product (GDP) to be 2.9 percent lower in 2025 than our pre-pandemic projections. But there is significant variation across the region. Our economic scarring scorecard helps explain much of the disparity,” it said.
The report said the Philippines, as well as India at a score of -1 percent, will experience “especially large losses given sharp falls in investment and higher unemployment rates.”
“Our scorecard supports our forecasts that India and the Philippines will experience the largest declines in output relative to pre-pandemic trend growth by 2025,” the report said.
The think tank said the GDP levels in India and the Philippines could be eight to 10 percent lower than pre-COVID-19 forecasts.
The report said the Philippines, as well as India and Indonesia, which all placed at the bottom of the list, have “struggled to contain outbreaks since the pandemic took hold.”
“At the same time, the fiscal response has been meager in both India and the Philippines, given the stringency of their lockdowns,” the report said.
“This has led us to lower our investment and employment forecasts significantly. Indeed, investment in the Philippines was still 25 percent below pre-COVID-19 levels in Q1 2021 and the unemployment rate in Q2 was nearly double what it was before the pandemic,” it added. – Angela Celis
