The Philippine Retailers Association (PRA) remains hopeful of posting 10 to 15 percent revenue growth this year despite challenges from rising foreign competition, growing e-commerce platforms and looming global trade risk.
“A 10 to 15 percent target has been a reasonable growth range,” PRA chairman Roberto Claudio said in a media briefing over the weekend.
“We see a retail industry that will continue to grow, especially through 2026 and 2027, toward the end of the current president’s term,” he added.
Claudio did not provide specific revenue forecast figures but noted that individual retailers are aiming for growth based on recovering consumer activity.
He acknowledged growing concern over the potential impact of US tariffs on the broader Philippine economy.
“We need to see how it will affect retail. Yes, people are going out and malls are full, but average purchase values may be lower,” Claudio said.
PRA President Alice Liu echoed the sentiment, saying the first half of the year was buoyed by election-related spending, but added that recent weather disturbances and flooding could limit mall foot traffic and consumer spending in the second half.
“Retailers remain cautiously optimistic. After all, Christmas is never cancelled in the Philippines,” Liu said.
She warned, however, of indirect threats from US trade tensions, particularly in the form of diverted exports from tariff-affected economies like China.
“For example, platforms like Shein — whose biggest Southeast Asian market is the Philippines — could flood our market further,” Liu said.
Liu also raised a broader appeal for nationalist consumer behavior, warning that excessive reliance on imported goods could eventually lead to local business closures and job losses.
“How we consume determines the future of the total ecosystem,” she said.
While not opposing the entry of foreign brands, Liu emphasized the need for local retailers to level up. “We’re not saying no to global players. The Filipino shopper is very global. But we must be ready to compete and coexist.”
At the policy level, Claudio renewed the PRA’s call for the abolition of the de minimis rule, which exempts e-commerce purchases under P10,000 from value-added tax and customs duties.
This exemption, he said, creates an unfair playing field against local retailers.
“There’s an uneven level of competition,” he said, noting that the Department of Finance and the Department of Trade and Industry are studying potential policy responses — either amending the Internet Transactions Act or removing the de minimis threshold entirely.
“Abolishing the de minimis rule is the more permanent and palatable solution,” Claudio said. “It will significantly shape the future of the retail industry.”
