Stocks are expected to get a boost from window-dressing as the year’s first quarter comes to a close. However, analysts said the market’s uptick is still likely to be capped by the continuing tension over the US trade war.
The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) closed Friday’s trade at 6,266.75, closing the week 0.43 percent lower compared with the prior week’s 6,294.11.
On a year-to-date basis, the PSEi was down 4 percent from its end-2024 close of 6,528.79.
Luis Limlingan, managing director at Regina Capital and Development Corp., said this week will be the last full-trading week of March before the first quarter concludes on Monday next week.
He said fund managers are expected to actively pick up stocks until then to improve their portfolios as they close their quarterly books.
“Then I think more data related to the US and Ph CPI (consumer price index) will give hints whether the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas will cut rates at its next meeting,” said Limlingan.
The week, however, will serve as a prelude to the US rollout of President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff to all trading partners, which he announced last month and is set for April 2.
Jonathan Ravelas, managing director at eManagement for Business and Marketing Services (EMBM), said the market’s rise had been capped at 6,300 by the escalating trade tensions due to Trump’s tariff.
He said this will not likely change in the near future and will continue to be a bump in the PSEi’s rise.
“Continue to expect sideways to down between the 5,800 and 6,300 levels in the near term,” he said.
Online stock trading platform 2tradeasia.com added that the bellwether index held steady at its trading range, “primarily pushed and pulled by interest rate-related headlines.”
With the US Fed rate decision now in the backseat, 2tradeasia.com said the focus shifts to the local central bank.
“A potential early April cut is being floated, making March inflation (to be reported on April 4) even more important as a potential indicator. We caution that preemptive pricing regarding the April cut can be immature as interim data can still alter the BSP’s (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) stance; additionally, an early cut will put parity pressure on the peso. Circumstances remain extremely fluid, and extra vigilance is warranted given event risks in early-mid April,” it said.
2tradeasia.com said investors should focus on risk management and fundamentals. “Resilient firms outpace macro noise,” it said.
