The Federation of Free Farmers (FFF) urged Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) to review its data gathering methodologies after it noted discrepancies in the recently released official data on rice stocks and output.
Discrepancies are likely to cause miscalculations in determining actual rice stock levels and outputs, FFF said.
The data is one of the factors used to determine importation.
Raul Montemayor, FFF national manager, said a discrepancy of 800,000 metric tons (MT) equivalent to about 22 days supply as of April 1 has been noted in the PSA report.
“(This) is very significant. If the PSA data are correct, it means that our palay output has been overstated all along. They also imply that our rice supply will tighten in the coming months, especially since El Niño’s impact on the second quarter harvest is expected to be more serious,” Montemayor said.
FFF said based on the PSA’s latest inventory report, the country’s rice stocks totaled 1.64 million metric tons (MT) as of April 1, sufficient for only 44 days of national consumption if the daily usage is pegged at 37,500 MT.
But the group said stock levels derived from January 1 starting inventories and actual rice output and documented import arrivals during the first quarter of the year indicate tApril 1 stocks should be around 2.46 million MT which is good for about 66 days of consumption.
PSA data showed palay output during the first quarter declined 2 percent, presumably due to the effect of the El Niño phenomenon. Yields dropped 1.8 percent on the average while harvested area decreased by only 0.13 percent.
“Inexplicably however, rainfed areas appear to have been less affected than irrigated farms despite the lack of rain. The percentage reduction in output and yield in irrigated areas was about double that in areas dependent on rainfall,” Montemayor said.
FFF last year flagged even larg er discrepancies in the PSA’s published data, noting that palay output figures in 2022 could have been overestimated by nearly 25 percent or around 5 million MT if the agency’s ending inventory estimate for the year was assumed to be correct.
