PH shares climb as traders position for new macro data

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Bargain hunting aided stocks to climb further Monday as investors anticipated the release this week of more market-sensitive macroeconomic data.

Investors will be alert to the December inflation data due out today, Tuesday. 

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) closed up 21.36 points, or 0.32 percent, at 6,625.17. 

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The broader All Shares index was up 8.55 points or 0.23 percent at 3,794.03. 

Gainers edged losers 112 to 103, with 52 stocks unchanged. Trading turnover reached P3.86 billion. 

Michael Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. (RCBC), described the rise as a “healthy upward correction” for the PSE, after a decline over the past two months which was seen largely due to various views of the impact of the Trump factor, including “higher US inflation, fewer Fed rate cuts, slower global trade and overall GDP growth.” 

Donald Trump is due to take his oath as the next US president January 20, 2025.

The peso eased further to close at 58.27 to the dollar, from 58.20 on Friday. The currency opened at 58.20, hitting a high of 58.17 and a low of 58.36. Trading turnover reached $1.74 billion.

Emerging Asian currencies fell against a resilient dollar on Monday as investors awaited a flurry of US economic data this week to get more clarity on the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook.

MSCI’s index tracking emerging market (EM) currencies fell for a third straight session and was trading near five-month lows.

The Thai baht lost as much as 0.5 percent, hitting its lowest since November 27 last year. The Malaysian ringgit, the only Asian currency to rise in 2024, fell 0.4 percent.

The Indian rupee slipped to an all-time low, pressured by the dollar, which stood near a two-year peak.

Traders said likely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) helped limit losses in the rupee.

The Chinese yuan fell to a 16-month low. It had breached the key 7.3 per-dollar level for the first time since 2023 on Friday.

The yuan has hit fresh lows routinely on fears of increased tariffs on Chinese products after Trump won the US presidential election, and worries about China’s economic recovery.

China is Southeast Asia’s largest trading partner and a weaker yuan could send ripples across regional currency markets.

“While the depreciating currency (yuan) may act as a shock absorber for the Chinese economy, especially exporters, it is a risk to EM asset valuations, because it will indirectly strengthen the US dollar and therefore tighten financial conditions,” said Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.

Moreover, markets have stayed cautious ahead of Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20 due to uncertainty over his plans for hefty US import tariffs, tax cuts and immigration restrictions, which have lent support to the dollar and pressured emerging currencies.

“If it becomes apparent that tariffs aren’t merely a negotiating tactic and they are applied as threatened, then Asian FX could easily depreciate further from here as the dollar rises,” Rodda said.

Inflation data from the Philippines and China, and trade data from Taiwan will be on investors’ radar this week.

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Focus will also be on the US December payrolls report, due on Friday, and minutes of the Fed’s last policy meeting, due on Wednesday.

Philstocks Financial Inc., said investors continued to hunt for bargains.

“Also aiding in Monday’s session is the investors optimistic expectations towards the Philippines’ December 2024 inflation rate,” it said. 

Most actively traded International Container Terminal Services Inc. was up P11.20 at P410.60. BDO Unibank Inc. gained P2.90 to P147.90. DITO CME Holdings Inc. edged P0.29 higher to P2.23. DigiPlus Interactive Corp. slipped P1 to P27.95. SM Investments Corp. lost P9 to P899. Ayala Land Inc. firmed P0.05 to P27. Bank of the Philippine Islands eased P0.50 to P124. SM Prime Holdings Inc. was down P0.05 at P25.15. Synergy Grid Corp. of the Philippines gained P0.40 to P11.90, and Jollibee Foods Corp. slid P5.60 to P261. (Ruelle Castro with additional report from Reuters)

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