BTr cites ‘minimal deviation’ from programmed debt
The national government’s (NG) total outstanding debt has reached P16.05 trillion as of end-2024, the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) said in a statement on Tuesday.
The BTr said this reflected a 9.8 percent or P1.44 trillion increase from P14.62 trillion at end-2023.
The end-December level shows a 0.2 percent decline from P16.09 trillion at end-November.
The BTr said the debt stock as of end-204 was closely aligned with the 2025 Budget of Expenditures and Sources of Financing projections of P16.06 trillion, reflecting a minimal variance of 0.03 percent.
It said, however, the corresponding debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio of 60.7 percent was slightly above the 60.6 percent revised estimate under the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework on account of the lower-than-expected full-year real GDP growth of 5.6 percent.
“Nevertheless, the minimal deviation from the programmed debt underscores the national government’s effective cash and debt management strategies, including its proactive management of the level and timing of its external debt issuances amidst volatile exchange rate environment,” the BTr said.
The year-on-year increase in the debt stock is primarily attributed to the P1.31 trillion net issuance of debt instruments under the government’s deficit program, as well as the P208.73 billion valuation effect of a stronger US dollar, although advantageous third currency movements significantly trimmed the debt total by P80.74 billion.
The BTr said that domestic securities comprised the lion’s share of the total debt stock at 68.1 percent, while external obligations accounted for 31.9 percent.
Meanwhile, the end-December 2024 domestic debt reached P10.93 trillion, reflecting an increase of P912.49 billion or 9.1 percent from a year earlier.
The BTr said the net issuance of domestic securities contributed P905.31 billion to the annual increase, while local currency depreciation increased the peso value of outstanding foreign currency-denominated domestic securities by P7.18 billion.
“Domestic debt is also P8.75 billion or 0.1 percent higher than the previous month’s as net borrowing added P10.91 billion while the effect of local currency appreciation on the value of US dollar-denominated domestic securities tempered the increase by P2.16 billion,” the bureau said.
The NG’s external debt stood at P5.12 trillion, reflecting a P522.55 billion or 11.4 percent increase from the end-December 2023 level.
“The year-on-year increase was mainly due to P401.74 billion in net external debt availments, while the peso depreciation against the US dollar increased external debt valuation by P201.55 billion. Meanwhile, third-currency adjustments provided an P80.74 billion downward valuation offset,” the BTr said.
Month-on-month, the external debt decreased by P48.41 billion or 0.9 percent, the BTr said, as local- and third-currency fluctuations reduced the peso value of foreign currency-denominated debt by P66.6 billion and P30.68 billion, respectively, while net availments added P48.87 billion.