SB Equities Inc. expects the peso to drop to 49.50 by the end of the year as trade figures improve.
This after the government reported a 72.1 percent increase in April exports at $5.7 billion,
while imports improved 140.9 percent from last year’s at $8.4 billion.
While noting that the improved figures are a result of a base effect coming from the tough environment last year due to the coronavirus pandemic, SB Equities said it still expects trade to recover this year “on the back of looser curbs locally and a robust global recovery.”
“Exports are projected to grow 5 percent year on year and imports by 8 percent, with improving trade likely depreciating the PHP to 49.50 by the end of the year,” it said.
According to SB Equities, the April trade data “suggests that lockdowns hindered both inbound and outbound shipments and that prolonged community quarantine restrictions may weigh on merchandise trade towards full recovery.”
“With mobility curbs gradually relaxing further, we can expect a sustained pickup for both exports and imports in the near term. The fast pace of vaccinations and reopenings in several countries, especially that of our key trading partners, is also seen as positive for Philippine trade,” it added. — Ruelle Castro
