Oil price movements mixed anew

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Price adjustments on fuel that will take effect on Tuesday are mixed on fears of a possible crude supply surplus next year despite a delay in output hikes and the extension of deep production cuts until the end of 2026.

Seaoil and Caltex increased per liter prices of gasoline by P0.40 but decreased per liter prices of diesel by P0.50 and kerosene by P0.75.

Jetti and Clean Fuel adjusted prices upward on gasoline by P0.40 per liter but downward on diesel by P0.50 per liter.

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Data from the Department of Energy (DOE) as of December 3 showed Manila price per liter of gasoline (RON91) stood at P55.60, diesel at P53.25 and kerosene at P71.74.

DOE data showed year-to-date adjustments as of the same date stood at a total net increase of P11.35 per liter for gasoline and P9.55 per liter for diesel but a net decrease of P1.90 per liter for kerosene.

Reuters reported that as of Friday last week, Brent crude futures settled at $71.12 a barrel while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures ended at $67.20 per barrel.

The report said the Organization of Petroleum Exporting

Countries delayed the start of oil output hikes by three months until April and extended the full lifting of production cuts until the end of 2026.

The group had initially planned to begin easing production cuts in October, but decided against it due to a slowdown in global crude oil demand, particularly from China, the world’s largest importer.

OPEC’s decision pushed prices up but this was countered by banks’ projections that oil supply surplus is likely to happen next year.

The report cited Bank of America’s forecast which said increasing oil supply surpluses will drive the price of Brent crude to an average of $65 a barrel next year while oil demand growth will rebound to 1 million barrels per day (bpd). It also cited HSBC’s projections of a 0.2 million bpd oil market surplus next year.

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