The country may need to import between 3 and 3.4 million metric tons (MT) of rice next year to have a 90-day carryover stock by the end of 2023, according to the Federation of Free Farmers (FFF).
In a statement, the group said its projection is based on the Department of Agriculture’s (DA) own estimate that local rice production next year will be flat amid a 1.3 percent higher food utilization due to population growth.
FFF also said seed use in 2023 is assumed to be the same as this year since there is no expected change in production.
The group added without importation, ending stock of rice in the country by end of the third quarter in 2023 will be -427,000 MT and will improve to 321,000 MT by yearend which is good for only nine days.
“As early as July 2023, there will already be upward pressure on prices because the carryover stock from the first semester will be equivalent to only one month supply,” FFF said.
Data from the Bureau of Plant Industry showed 3.54 million MT imported rice arrived in the Philippines as of December 8.
Last October, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reduced its projections for the Philippines’ milled rice production for the year, citing lower fertilizer use as well as the effects of typhoon Karding in the local agriculture sector.
The USDA revised its forecast for the Philippines’ rice production for market year 2022-2023 as of July at 11.98 million MT, down by 3.5 percent from the original 12.41 million MT forecast.
The DA’s monitoring of public markets in the National Capital Region yesterday showed the price per kilogram (kg) of imported rice was P50 for special variety; P45, premium; P42, well-milled; and P38, regular milled.
For local rice, special variety was P50; premium, P45; well-milled, P40 and; regular milled, P38. – Jed Macapagal
