The Philippine economy will grow 5.8 percent in 2024, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Wednesday, down from its July forecast of 6 percent.
Next year, the IMF said the Philippines could grow by 6.1 percent, compared to its previous 6.2 percent projection.
The IMF also said “gradual” easing of monetary policy is appropriate for the Philippines as inflation returns towards the central bank’s target.
The IMF’s growth estimates for the Philippine economy are below the government’s growth targets of 6 percent to 7 percent this year and 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent in 2025.
The Philippines’ current account deficit is seen settling at 2 percent of the economy, compared to the 2.1 percent forecast shortfall in June, the IMF said.
It expects that deficit to be 1.9 percent of GDP next year.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 6.25 percent in August, the first reduction in nearly four years as inflation eases.
“With inflation and inflation expectations returning to target, a continued gradual reduction of the policy rate is appropriate,” IMF mission chief Elif Arbatli-Saxegaard said in a briefing.
“Along this declining rate path, it will be still important for the BSP to anchor inflation expectations in the target band and remain data dependent and agile.”
The IMF, however, declined to suggest a pace and magnitude for potential cuts at the BSP’s policy-setting meetings on Oct. 16 and Dec. 19.
BSP Governor Eli Remolona said on Monday it had scope to do a 50-basis-point rate cut in one policy meeting, but such a big reduction would only happen if there were worries about a so-called hard landing for the economy.
Inflation slowed to a seven-month low of 3.3 percent in August, and is expected to have slowed further in September, the BSP has said.
The central bank has set a 2 percent to 4 percent inflation target for this year and next.
