The national government’s outstanding debt grew 0.41 percent in April from the previous month’s level and reached a new record of P16.753 trillion, the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) said on Tuesday.
The debt stock rose from P16.684 trillion recorded in March.
The “modest” uptick was tempered by the appreciation of the peso, which in turn reduced the need for additional borrowings in line with the fiscal program, the BTr said in a statement on Tuesday.
Compared with the year-earlier level, the government’s total debt stock increased by 11.56 percent in April 2025 from P15.017 trillion in April 2024.
“With the economy continuing to grow faster compared with its obligations, the country remains firmly on track to reduce the debt-to-gross domestic product ratio to below 60 percent by the end of the President’s term. The fiscal deficit has also been steadily narrowing and is on track to drop to about 3.8 percent by 2028,” the BTr said.
An economist from a private a business consulting and research group said government bond issuances may have helped boost the debt stock.
Reinielle Matt Erece, economist at Oikonomia Advisory & Research Inc., said: “High demand for government securities may have caused bond issuances to be oversubscribed, which may have led the government’s debt to rise.”
BTr data showed domestic debt amounted to P11.591 trillion as of the end of April 2025, up 1.85 percent from the month-earlier level of P11.38 trillion.
“This was supported by strong demand for government securities, including P300 billion in benchmark bonds. This reflects the investors’ sustained confidence in the government’s fiscal program,” the BTr said.
“With economic fundamentals remaining sound, the country continues to enjoy strong market access at reasonable rates. The local currency’s appreciation also reduced the peso value of dollar-denominated domestic securities by P3.85 billion,” the bureau added.
Foreign debt down
On the other hand, external debt declined to P5.162 trillion, a 2.68 percent decrease from the end-March level of P5.304 trillion.
The BTr said the reduction was primarily due to a P124.74 billion decrease in the peso value of external debt, resulting from the peso appreciation, combined with net repayments of P58.28 billion.
“The debt portfolio remains resilient, with 91.7 percent of obligations carrying fixed interest rates and 82 percent classified as long-term. This structure helps insulate public finances from abrupt changes in interest rates and the market environment,” the BTr said.
Debt seen rising further
Michael Ricafort, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist, said for the coming months, the outstanding national government debt could go to new record highs amid new borrowings and the need to hedge both local and foreign borrowings of the national government, given the “Trump factor” that caused volatility in the global financial markets.
He added a caveat, that the level could still be positively offset by the stronger peso exchange rate in May 2025 to early June 2025, (which), thereby could reduce the peso equivalent of the national government’s outstanding external/foreign debts.”
