Pickup last Q4 seen sustained to pass 6% in 2025
Philippine economic growth in 2024 likely fell short of the 6.0-6.5 percent growth target despite a slight pickup in the fourth quarter, Finance Secretary Ralph Recto said, seeing the impact of successive typhoons late last year weighing on the full-year result.
“We probably did not hit our growth targets in 2024 because of the numerous typhoons,” Recto told reporters during an interview at the DOF office late Friday.
Asked further if the full-year pace would even be slower than the 6 percent low end of the growth assumption by the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC), he said, “possibly.”
“Because today we’re already at 5.8 percent (as of the end of the first three quarters). We’re below 6 percent already,” he added.
As previously reported by the government, the weaker-than-expected 5.2 percent growth in the third quarter alone dragged the average growth in the first three quarters to 5.8 percent.
The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said last year the slowdown was due to the contraction in agriculture, brought by the combined impact of El Niño, La Niña and several typhoons that hit the country in late 2024.
The successive typhoons also resulted in suspended classes and work in government offices, besides the supply chain disruptions, NEDA said.
Q4 pickup through 2025
Recto pointed out, however, the fourth-quarter rise might have regained some pace when compared with the third quarter’s 5.2 percent increase.
“I think it will be faster than Q3. Q3 was 5.2 (percent). I think it will definitely be faster than Q3. If it hits 6 (percent) in the fourth quarter, I’ll be happy with that,” Recto said.
“I don’t think it will hit 6 percent for (the full-year of) 2024, but I think it will surpass 6 percent in 2025,” he added.
Recto’s expectation for 2024 is also in line with the latest forecasts made by multilateral organizations and other institutions last year, with projections ranging from 5.4 percent to 6 percent.
In December, several agencies announced these forecasts for 2024, such as London-based Pantheon Macroeconomics which estimated a growth of 5.4 percent; the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office and International Monetary Fund, 5.8 percent; state-think tank Philippine Institute for Development Studies, 5.8 to 6 percent; World Bank, 5.9 percent; and the Asian Development Bank, 6 percent.
In 2023, the Philippine economy grew 5.5 percent.
For 2025, the DBCC’s growth target is between 6 and 8 percent.
