Motorists should brace for sharp fuel price hikes next week, with gasoline prices projected to rise by more than P2 per liter and diesel by nearly P4, amid growing concerns over the Iran-Israel conflict and its impact on global oil markets.
Leo Bellas, president of independent oil firm Jetti Petroleum Inc., said that based on the latest Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) trading data as of Tuesday, gasoline prices could increase by P2.30 to P2.50 per liter, while diesel may go up by as much as P3.40 to P3.60 per liter.
“These movements are driven by growing uncertainty around the Iran-Israel hostilities and fears the conflict may intensify, potentially disrupting supply routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz,” Bellas said.
If the forecast holds, it would mark the highest single-week upward adjustment for both fuels this year. The last major increase for gasoline was P1.80 per liter on June 17, while diesel and kerosene last saw jumps of P2.70 and P2.50, respectively, on January 21.
Despite the upward pressure, Bellas said Jetti is striving to keep its pump prices competitive. “Selected Jetti stations offer
discount lanes for public utility vehicles (PUVs) and TNVS [transport network vehicle services],” he noted. “Overall, our pricing remains competitive across locations.”
Department of Energy (DOE) data from June 10 to 16 showed average pump prices in the National Capital Region at P53.60 per liter for RON 91 gasoline, P51.60 for diesel, and P68.72 for kerosene.
While market jitters over the Iran-Israel conflict are pushing trading benchmarks higher, the Department of Energy (DOE) sees no immediate supply risk.
DOE Oil Industry Management Bureau Director Rino Abad, in a separate statement, said the recent oil price surge is largely driven by market speculation rather than actual supply disruptions.
“It’s unfortunate that the Iran-Israel conflict erupted, because otherwise the trend was actually downward,” Abad said. “But even with the current increases, prices are still below January levels, when gasoline was at P70 and diesel at P60.”
Abad explained that Iran accounts for only 1.5 million to 1.6 million barrels per day — less than 2 percent of global oil supply — and current Israeli strikes have so far targeted nuclear and missile facilities, not oil fields.
“Israel knows that hitting oil infrastructure would escalate the situation and trigger global backlash,” he added.
The DOE has not observed any domestic fuel supply issues and reported that inventory levels remain healthy. As of the latest monitoring, the country has 28 days’ worth of gasoline, 26 days of diesel, 29 days of aviation fuel, and over 100 days of kerosene — all within or above mandated minimums.
“These levels are sufficient to manage temporary logistical disruptions but are not meant to sustain the country during prolonged supply crises,” Abad clarified.
He also said the DOE has called for a meeting next week with at least 10 oil firms to discuss additional measures, including expanded fuel discount programs for public utility drivers and operators.
“We want a proper dialogue to explore how the private sector can help cushion the impact if the situation worsens,” he said.
