Filipino remittances to top 2024 forecasts — BSP  

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11-mo to Nov total $31B at record high

Remittances from overseas Filipinos through banks posted a steady increase of 3.3 percent in November from a year earlier, though lower than the prior month’s level, but it boosted the cumulative 11-month total to $31.113 billion, the highest on record for the period so far, data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed.

This compares with the January to November 2023 level of $30.211 billion.

For November alone, cash remittances reached $2.81 billion, up 3.3 percent from $2.72 billion recorded a year earlier. Compared with October, however, remittances dropped 8.8 percent from $3.079 billion in October. November’s drop is also the lowest in six months, according to the BSP data. 

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Dollars changing hands at a money changer’s counter in Manila on Jan. 15, 2025. (Photo RHOY COBILLA)

The numbers look even bigger when Filipino workers’ remittances coursed through informal channels, such as those sent home through traveling relatives and friends, are included.  For November, remittances coursed both through banks and informal channels grew by a faster 3.5 percent to $3.12 billion, compared with $3.02 billion in November 2023. This brought the cumulative year-to-date total remittances sent home through all channels to $34.61 billion, up 3 percent from $33.59 billion recorded in January-November 2023.

For full-year 2024, cash remittances are projected by the BSP to rise further by another 3 percent due to the traditional seasonal increase in December. Despite the month-on-month downturn in November, the BSP said cash remittances are on track to meet the 3 percent forecast for growth for full-year 2024. For 2023, remittances for the full year were up 2.9 percent.  

The BSP said despite in the decline in November, remittances remain a bright spot for the overall economy as an important growth driver, especially in terms of consumer spending, which accounts for at least 70 percent of the Philippine economy.

 Top remittance sources

“Growth in cash remittances from the US, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and the United Arab Emirates, contributed mainly to the increase in remittances in January-November 2024,” the BSP said in a statement. 

Other biggest country sources include Japan, the United Kingdom, Canada, Qatar, Taiwan, and South Korea, it said.

The US accounted for the largest share of overall cash remittances from January to November, followed by Singapore and Saudi Arabia.

Combined remittances from these top 10 countries accounted for 80 percent of the total cash remittances during the period.

Traditional Dec surge

The BSP said remittances in December usually show a seasonal upsurge, besides the dollar-to-peso conversion factor during the Christmas and New Year holiday season, given the higher dollar inflow. December is also considered in the Philippines as the biggest spending month for consumers in a typical year.

Jonathan Ravelas, chief strategist at BDO Bank, agrees. 

“While it’s true that remittances saw a year-on-year increase, the dip in November could be due to seasonal factors and the weaker peso as OFWs send less dollars. With the holiday season in December, we might, indeed, see a rise in remittances as overseas Filipinos send extra funds home,” Ravelas said.

Michael Ricafort, RCBC chief economist, said that in the coming months, modest growth in OFW remittances could still continue as OFW families still need to cope “with still relatively higher prices locally that would require the sending of more remittances.”

“Nevertheless, continued and consistent growth in OFW remittances could be attributed to still relatively higher prices locally since 2022, which required more OFW remittances back to the country, though offset by the still relatively higher US dollar-peso exchange rate since 2022,” Ricafort said.

Ricafort also observed that the average OFW remittances year-on-year growth since the pandemic and over the past 5 years has been at 2 percent to 3 percent, consistent with or even higher than the country’s population growth and demographics but similar to the country’s average GDP growth since the pandemic.

“Still relatively higher US dollar-peso exchange rate since 2022 would still reduce the sending of more OFW remittances,” he said.

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