The economy is estimated to grow by 3.9 percent to 7.1 percent this year, or a midpoint of 5.5 percent, according to an official of Sun Life of Canada Philippines Inc.
Michael Gerard Enriquez, Sun Life chief investments officer, said in his presentation in a virtual briefing yesterday while 2021 may be a recovery year, it may not be as strong as earlier predicted due to the uncertainty of the fiscal stimulus and prolonged delays in vaccine supply rollout.
“There’s been a clamor of fiscal stimulus from the government… that’s the one that’s lacking. … Bayanihan I and II… are not enough to help absorb all the unemployment, the displaced workers. This is the one that continues to lag and unfortunately the Department of Finance is really tight on their budgets and maintaining their budgets,” Enriquez said.
“What we only saw was the aggressive monetary policy that helped in curbing the impact to our economy, but on the fiscal side, on the spending side, th(ere) was really none,” he added.
Enriquez’s presentation showed the gross domestic product projection for the year has been revised from the earlier view of 7.5 percent to 9.7 percent, having a midpoint of 8.6 percent.
“The recovery will continue to be U-shaped, but it will be a wider U, meaning it will take a little longer for us to really recover,” Enriquez said.
“From the fourth quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022, hopefully we (will) see a better trajectory back to trendline growth for the economy,” he added.
Enriquez also said the amount of the proposed Bayanihan III is “still not significant, but from where we are, (it is) better than nothing.”
“It has been long been delayed….(Congress) need(s) to pass it soon. If they continue to delay it, I don’t think we will feel the effects anymore,” Enriquez said.
Sun Life’s simulations showed that for the second quarter, a strong growth is estimated at 10 percent to 12.5 percent due to base effects, 6.5 percent to 8.3 percent in the third quarter, and three percent to five percent in the fourth quarter.
Enriquez said inflation for the year is projected at four percent, and three percent next year, while the US dollar-peso exchange rate is seen at 48 to 50 for 2021.
He said the yearend Philippine Stock Exchange index forecast is 7,648, with recovery to be led by the telecommunications, property, consumer and transport sectors.
Gerard Bautista, Sun Life Asset Management Co. Inc. president, said in the same event the company’s mutual fund assets under management this year posted a record high of P137 billion, posting a 72 percent growth year-on-year.
It is also faster than the industry growth of 42 percent.
The company’s client base also rose 11 percent in the first quarter, with over a quarter of a million in investor count. (A. Celis)
