The recent typhoons that hit various parts of the country could slash off 0.15 percentage point from the Philippines’ full year gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, which has already contracted in the first three quarters amid the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.
Rosemarie Edillon, National Economic and Development Authority undersecretary, said that the figure is only an initial estimate, and may still be updated as reports come in.
“Our initial estimate is that it will shed off something like 0.15 percentage point for the full year,” Edillon said.
“In peso terms, I don’t have the exact amount, but it would be something like P90 billion.
It’s a very initial estimate, it will have to be updated once we get updates from the ground,” she added.
As of end-September, the economy has posted a decline of 10 percent, amid the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Development Budget Coordination Committee in July projected the economy to contract by 5.5 percent for the full year, or a contraction with a band of -4.5 percent to -6.6 percent.
However, Dennis Mapa, Philippine Statistics Authority undersecretary and national statistician, said in an earlier briefing that even the -5.5 percent projection for 2020 is no longer feasible.
“Based on our estimate, we need to grow about 6.6 percent in the fourth quarter to get an average of -5.5 percent,” Mapa said.
According to available data going back as far as 1946, the economy only contracted four times on an annual basis.
The negative growth rates occurred in 1984, -7 percent; 1985, -6.9 percent; 1991, -0.4 percent; and 1998, -0.5 percent.
In 2021, the government has a growth target of 6.5 to 7.5 percent.
“The numbers (for 2021), we have already included the availability of the COVID-19 vaccine. In fact, our best case scenario is that it will be available towards the end of next year,” Edillon said.
“But we’re hoping that even prior to that, we would be kind of used to being able to being able to comply to this minimum health standards and really manage this COVID-19. So that we can go about our work,” she added.
Edillon, however, added that the availability of the vaccine is still really important in terms of propping up consumer confidence going forward.
