The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said the lowering of alert level is “imminent” in the coming weeks, as the number of new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases is showing a gradual decline.
Karl Kendrick Chua, socioeconomic planning secretary, said with a shift from alert level 3 to alert level 2 in the National Capital Region (NCR) plus area, a P3 billion per week improvement in gross value added can be expected.
“We are seeing negative growth rates already in NCR, so it went up very fast but it’s also going down very fast. And other countries that experienced Omicron also experienced the same, so it appears that this is a spike that is of a very temporary nature. What is good about this spike is that most people in NCR, for instance, and leading areas are vaccinated.
And although the cases went up as the data have shown, the severe critical and deaths are way, way, way lower compared to, for instance, the Delta surge,” Chua said.
“We believe there is an opening for us to see a lower alert level in the coming weeks. If we continue this trend and address the remaining risk, it is likely also that we see a lower alert level such as alert level 1 in the coming months,” he added.
The government has a growth target of 7 to 9 percent for 2022, and Chua said the country is still on track to achieving this despite the Omicron surge.
“We are still on track in achieving our full year growth, so long as we fully go back to alert level 2 or lower by the end of this quarter,” he said.
Chua said main risks to growth this year are any unknown COVID-19 variants.
“Other than that, there are no surprises. Other risks that we are aware of and addressing are inflation (oil and food),” he said.
Last year, the economy grew by 5.6 percent as the government eased restrictions towards the end of the year.
“What we have seen in 2021 is change in our policy from imposing areawide quarantines or lockdowns to a more granular approach and more risk-based approach. We allowed most of the economy to open in the fourth quarter of 2021 and targeted the restrictions on… crowds, close contacts and closed spaces,” Chua said.
“This has resulted in a higher GDP (gross domestic product) outturn compared to the analysts estimate for the second half of 2021. So this shows that our policy is right, we have allowed the economy to open, cases actually fell as we opened the economy prior to the Omicron. And we will continue to see this trend, I believe in 2022. So the growth is sustainable,” he added. – Angela Celis
