The Department of Energy (DOE) expects power rates to drop below P1 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) by 2050 if all capacities under five rounds of the Green Energy Auction (GEA) Program come online.
DOE Undersecretary Rowena Cristina Guevara said such projections were shown by a simulation conducted by the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP).
The DOE official disclosed the findings during a forum hosted by the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities in Taguig City on Wednesday.
Under the current setup of GEA, interested renewable energy developers will compete for incentivized fixed power rates by offering prices that are lower than or equal to reserve prices set by the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC).
“So, we asked the IEMOP, the market operator, to do a simulation of prices of electricity until 2050 if all the Green Energy Auctions number one to five come online,” Guevara said.
“This is the number that we got. As of 2026, Luzon, for example, is expected to average P4.95 per kWh. By 2050, it will be P0.28 per kWh,” Guevara said.
“Visayas will go from about P5.28 per kWh in 2026 to P0.48 per kWh by 2050, and lastly, Mindanao, at P4.06 per kWh, will go down to P0.36 per kWh by 2050,” she added.
Guevara said that they have asked IEMOP to do such a simulation because they wanted “to make sure that our consumers are protected.”
Currently, the total capacity of RE projects to be involved in the first five rounds of GEA is 26,210.978 megawatts (MW).
The first iteration of GEA opened in June 2022 with an initial 2,000 MW of capacity, while GEA2 attracted 3,580.76 MW of rated capacity.
Although not yet finalized and awarded to specific developers, as much as 10,653 MW for GEA4 and up to 3,300 MW for GEA5 will be allocated, the DOE said.
In a separate statement on Wednesday, DOE said it accepted a total capacity of 6,677.218 MW for GEA3, which is expected to be delivered between 2025 and 2035.
DOE said among the accepted bids for GEA3 are the Pan Pacific Renewable Power Phils. Corp. for three hydroelectric power projects (HPPs), including two impounding HPPs, such as the 150 MW Gened 1 and 150 MW Gened 2 projects, and the 2,000 MW Maton Pumped-Storage HPP, all located in Apayao.
Meanwhile, Coheco Badeo Corp. confirmed its acceptance of the 500 MW Kibungan Pumped-Storage HPP, located in Benguet.
Olympia Violago Water and Power, Inc. and Ahunan Power, Inc., both affiliates of Prime Infrastructure Capital Corp., also accepted the award for their pumped-storage projects. Olympia Violago will develop the 600 MW Wawa Pumped-Storage 1 HPP in Rodriguez, Rizal, while Ahunan Power will undertake the 1,400 MW Pakil Pumped-Storage HPP in Pakil, Laguna.
San Roque Hydropower Inc. was also awarded three pumped-storage projects, such as the 800 MW San Roque Lower East Pumped-Storage HPP and 800 MW San Roque West Pumped-Storage HPP, both located in Itogon, Benguet, and the 250 MW Aklan Pumped-Storage HPP in Malay, Aklan.
Energy Development Corp. and its affiliate, Bac-Man Geothermal Inc., Had their bids accepted for two geothermal facilities, including the 5.645 MW Bago Binary Geothermal Power Plant-Unit 1 in Bago City, Negros Occidental, and the 21.573 MW Tanawon Geothermal Power Plant-Unit 1 in Sorsogon City.
DOE said it is set to convene a stakeholder dialogue on June 30, 2025, with key players in the offshore wind (OSW) sector, involving the draft terms of reference and notice of auction for GEA5.
The agency said the dialogue will bring together representatives from OSW developers, industry associations, development partners, and key government agencies, including the ERC, National Grid Corporation of the Philippines, Philippine Ports Authority, Department of Transportation, Department of Environment and Natural Resources, and relevant DOE bureaus and offices. The DOE said this activity aims to solicit comments, clarify provisions, and promote a common interpretation of the draft GEA5 rules and related regulatory, technical, and infrastructure considerations.
