Despite the expected business losses that it will cause in the third quarter, an early, hard two-weekend lockdown during the ghost month of August is favored to save the country from further slipping into an economic downturn.
This was the consensus of Joey Concepcion, presidential adviser on entrepreneurship; Henry Lim Bon Liong, president of the Federation of Filipino-Chinese Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines Inc. and; George Barcelon, chairman of the Philippine Exporters Confederation Inc. and president emeritus of the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
The business leaders at the Pandesal Forum yesterday were unanimous in their support to a recommendation by Octa Research for a two-week circuit breaker but they also agreed the country needs at least a week of headway to prepare business and consumers for the lockdown.
This means the strict lockdown is likely by the second or third week of August.
Concepcion said the two-week lockdown can be used by government to pick up the pace of vaccination.
Concepcion said implementing this severe lockdown at the earliest possible time before new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID) cases surge uncontrollably will save the fourth quarter economic numbers from spiraling down.
He added now is the time also to do it since August, a traditionally a slow period because of heavy rains, is also regarded as a ghost month.
Along with the gnawing fear of catching the more transmissible Delta variant, these factors erode consumer confidence, according to Concepcion.
Barcelon is certain third quarter will not fare better than the second quarter in terms of GDP numbers due to this looming lockdown but noted the economic performance will get a boost by the fourth quarter as long as Delta variant cases are contained and vaccinations is stepped up to achieve population protection and/or herd immunity before the end of the year.
“(The fourth quarter) is the most important quarter of the year. This is where consumers spend Christmas. Election spending will also come. Most businesses who lost their income from the previous months will be able to recover,” Concepcion said.
Lim agrees this sacrifice shall help ensure stronger, economic recovery for fourth quarter 2021, which is traditionally the best time for businesses in the year.
Lim said businesses which can afford to give full or at least 50-percent of salaries of companies that are affected by the lockdown should do so.
