The country’s balance of payments (BOP) is expected to yield wider-than-expected deficits this year and the next due to “restrained” inflows amid persistent global economic and trade uncertainty, the central bank said on Wednesday.
In its latest September external accounts projections, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) raised its end-2025 BOP deficit estimate to $6.9 billion from its forecast of $6.3 billion announced in June. The new estimate is equivalent to 1.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).
For 2026, the deficit forecast is increased to $3.4 billion from $2.8 billion earlier. Next year’s expected deficit is 0.6 percent of GDP.
The BSP said continued pressures from the current account and widening trade-in-goods deficit are expected to affect the overall BOP position.
The current account shortfall for 2025 is adjusted higher to $16.4 billion from the June estimate of $16.3 billion. For 2026, the BSP now expects a $15.5 billion current account deficit, against $13.6 billion earlier.
The BSP said for 2025 and 2026, the current account deficit will remain at 3 percent of GDP.
“Goods exports and imports are anticipated to remain sluggish, shaped by softening global demand, easing commodity prices, and tempered domestic growth momentum. Infrastructure investments, potential trade diversion, and efforts to diversify export and import partners may help cushion external shocks,” the BSP said.
For 2025, BSP forecasts goods exports of $55.6 billion, up from $54.5 billion in the June estimate. Imports are seen remaining steady at $125.2 billion.
For 2026, goods exports are likely to grow to $56.2 billion from the previous estimate of $55.6 billion, while imports are expected at $126.4 billion, down from $127.5 billion earlier.
The BSP said growth in services exports, such as in business process outsourcing and tourism, may become moderate because of possible US reshoring policies and slowing inbound travel.
“Nevertheless, overseas Filipino remittances are expected to remain a resilient source of external support, underpinned by strong global labor demand and sustained confidence in formal transfer channels, despite the impending US tax on remittances,” the BSP said.
Services exports for 2025 are expected to be slower at $52.6 billion than the earlier estimate of $55.1 billion. For 2026, it is projected at $55.2 billion, down from $59.5 billion in the June forecast.
The BSP, meanwhile, maintained the cash remittances growth forecast of 3 percent for 2025 and 2026.
Cash remittances are projected at $35.5 billion this year and $36.6 billion in 2026.
For the BOP financial accounts, which include foreign direct investments, the BSP kept the June projection of $7.5 billion for this year and $8 billion for next year.
As for the foreign portfolio funds, the forecast is revised lower to $6.2 billion in 2025, while that for 2026 is kept at $5 billion.
“Foreign direct and portfolio investment inflows are likewise projected to soften from 2024, reflecting heightened global financial volatility and cautious investor behavior. However, recent policy reforms—including amendments to the Investors’ Lease Act—are poised to improve theinvestment climate,” the BSP said.
The forecasts for the 2025 and 2026 gross international reserves are also revised to $105 billion and $106 billion, respectively.
“Gross international reserves are expected to remain adequate, providing a robust buffer against external liquidity needs even as global market conditions evolve,” the BSP said.
