Fuel prices are set for a rollback on Tuesday in the absence of new global market jitters amid relative calm in the Middle East, oil firms and analysts said over the weekend.
Jetti Petroleum Inc. confirmed that with the completion of a full five-day trading cycle last week, projected fuel price cuts for this week have widened.
“Per liter reductions for next week will range from P1.50 to P1.70 for gasoline and P1.90 to P2.10 for diesel,” Jetti President Leo Bellas said.
Price cuts had earlier been projected at narrower ranges of P1.20 to P1.40 for gasoline and P1.70 to P1.90 for diesel, with only four days of trading data available earlier last week.
The Department of Energy (DOE) said the de-escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran is the key factor driving the anticipated drop in pump prices.
“The easing of tensions has pulled down global oil prices,” Rodela Romero, director of the DOE’s Oil Industry Management Bureau, said.
For the period June 24 to 30, DOE data show that average pump prices in Metro Manila stood at P56.15 per liter for gasoline (RON 91), P58.30 for diesel and P72.62 for kerosene.
Despite the easing, economists are cautioning against complacency.
Michael Ricafort, chief economist at RCBC, warned that the Strait of Hormuz—through which 20 percent of global oil supply passes—remains a potential flashpoint.
“The Philippines consumes about 500,000 barrels of oil per day, worth over $32 million. Any disruption at Hormuz could threaten supply and drive prices sharply higher,” Ricafort said.
So far, no blockage has occurred, but Ricafort cautioned that risk remains tied to Iran’s next moves and the potential for retaliatory attacks.
He added that volatile oil markets, paired with tightening US trade and immigration policies, could still stoke inflation globally and locally, possibly dampening economic momentum.
Still, market watchers remain cautiously optimistic.
Peter Garnace, research analyst at Unicapital Securities Inc., said global oil prices fell significantly last week due to the Israel-Iran ceasefire and the easing of Middle East supply risks.
“If the ceasefire holds and no major disruptions occur, oil prices may stay soft compared with last year,” Garnace said.
He added that the OPEC+ alliance is expected to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day in its upcoming July 6 meeting, which could further temper global prices, barring fresh geopolitical shocks.
