WITH the significant decline of world airline capacity due to rising cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Asia-Pacific including the Philippines has been worst affected according to think tank firm, Center for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA).
CAPA latest report said “Asia-Pacific has been hardest hit, although the rate of seat decline has slowed, mainly reflecting a flattening of the curve of COVID-19 cases in China. By contrast, the rate of fall in Europe, Middle East and Africa is accelerating. North America is relatively stable so far, while Latin America capacity is still growing (but growth has slowed).”
Data from air travel intelligence firm OAG showed show a year-on-year fall in global seat capacity of -14.7 percent for the week of March 16, 2020— the fastest drop so far this year. They also project that the decline will narrow to -4.0 percent by the end of April this year.
The decline in airline seats for the week of March 16, 2020 is the greatest fall so far this year according to CAPA.
Looking at year-on-year airline capacity development by region, Asia Pacific has been most affected, with seats numbers in the CAPA data down by 25.2 percent in the week of March 16, 2020.
“The rate of decline in Asia Pacific has eased somewhat since hitting -29.4 percent in the week of 17-Feb-2020, reflecting the relative flattening of the COVID-19 curve in China, but it is still falling faster than in any other region,” CAPA said.
However, the decline in seat numbers in Europe has accelerated to -19.0 percent, and in Middle East to -20.4 percent, capacity in Africa started to decline for the first time this week, dropping by 6.4 percent, North America capacity relatively stable and Latin America still growing in the week of March 16, 2020.
Focusing on capacity between the regions of the world, the biggest drop in capacity for the week of March 16, 2020 recorded for North America to Asia Pacific is -36.4 percent year-on-year), Europe to Asia Pacific -32.3 percent, and Asia Pacific to Africa -23.8 percent.
However, the data are understandably slow to reflect the true situation. Travel restrictions have been gathering pace.
The announced US ban on European nationals entering the US and the European Union’s clampdown on non-EU nationals entering the bloc is not fully reflected in data filed with OAG.
Many European airlines have announced planned capacity cuts of 75 percent to 90 percent in the coming weeks. However, around the world, plans could be further extended to even more extreme cuts.
Data on COVID-19 cases are the best lead indicator for the outlook in the aviation industry.
“It is likely that the World Health Organisation data on the reported number of COVID-19 cases significantly understates, and lags behind the true number. Nevertheless, the WHO data are likely to be the best lead indicator for aviation.” CAPA said.
However, even when the number of cases shows signs of passing a peak, there is likely to be a lag before capacity returns, and another lag before passenger traffic matches capacity.
Locally, the country three airline operators, Philippine Airlines, Cebu Pacific and AirAsia Philippines have suspended the domestic and international flights operation in the country starting March 20, in compliance with the enhanced community quarantine in the entire Luzon.
