Inflation likely remained steady at 1.8 percent in April, based on the mean average of estimates made by five economists and a senior research fellow polled by Malaya Business Insight.
Since prices of key food items continued to wane, especially rice, the respondents agree that inflation should be benign in April.
Inflation in March slowed to 1.8 percent, from 2.1 percent in February 2025 and 3.7 percent in March 2024, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported earlier this month.
The slower price movements in March were associated with the slower increases in prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages.
Slower increases in housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, as well as transport, also contributed to the overall inflation in March.
Core inflation, which excludes select food and energy items, registered to 2.2 percent in March 2025 from 2.4 percent in February 2025.
The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) is scheduled to release inflation data for April on May 6.
Deflation
Nicholas Mapa, Metrobank chief economist, pegs April’s inflation at 1.9 percent.
“Rice deflation is likely keeping inflation subdued as will lower transport costs,” Mapa said.
Patrick Ella, Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corporation portfolio manager, said their April inflation forecast is 1.8 percent as slower food prices remain the biggest driver of inflation overall.
Reinielle Matt Erece, an economist at Oikonomia Advisory & Research Inc., said inflation likely settled at 2 percent, “driven
by higher electricity prices but offset by lower food and oil prices.”
He also said “the peso appreciation may have helped lower import costs” during the month.
John Paolo Rivera, senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute of Development Studies, expects inflation clocking in at 2 percent largely because of lower food prices.
However, he flagged what he sees as “potential supply chain disruptions from global trade tensions, weather-related shocks and persistent service inflation” pushing prices higher in the coming months.
Food prices
“We expect April headline inflation to ease to 1.6 percent from 1.8 percent a month ago,” Emilio S. Neri Jr., senior vice president and lead economist at Bank of the Philippine Islands, said.
Neri said broad-based declines in major food items, along with softer oil and LPG rates, continue to steer disinflation in April.
Meat prices, on the other hand, remained elevated despite the Department of Agriculture’s (DA) maximum suggested retail price on pork, he said.
“This, combined with the sharp rise in electricity charges and the P5 to P10 LRT fare hike, which affects around half a million daily commuters in the NCR, partially offset the downward pressure on prices,” Neri added.
Michael Ricafort, RCBC chief economist, also forecast inflation at 1.6 percent in April.
“Still relatively better weather conditions in most of the country so far in April 2025, especially in Northern Philippines,” he said.
This could help increase agricultural production and increase local supplies, Ricafort noted.
Ricafort cited how the price of local tomatoes declined since February 2025 because of an oversupply in certain areas of the northern Philippines.This development could have helped ease inflationary pressures on the food basket.
However, dry weather could also reduce agricultural output and cause prices of some agricultural products to pick up, he added.
“Food accounts for more than 35 percent of the total inflation basket,” Ricafort said.
But meat prices remain relatively elevated even after the Christmas season due to the African swine fever that hit more areas around the country in recent months and reduced local hog supply, he said.
Rate cut
Considering the current inflation outlook, Neri said the possibility of another rate cut by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas during their June policy meeting “seems plausible.”
“BSP Governor Eli Remolona Jr.’s recent rhetoric has been more dovish and has repeatedly signaled continuous policy easing, given concerns that tariff hikes could dampen growth, while potentially triggering a flood of inexpensive goods from Asian exporters into the Philippines, further suppressing headline inflation,” Neri said.
“With global oil prices remaining stable and the peso holding at the 56 level versus the US dollar, most data appear conducive to another rate reduction,” he said.
“Furthermore, if first quarter GDP growth figures reveal a disappointing performance, the argument for a June rate cut would be even more compelling,” Neri added.
Sun Life sees the Bangko Sentral factoring in inflation and the first quarter GDP print when its policy-setting Monetary Board meets in June, Ella said.
Should the Q1 GDP turn out weak, the Bangko Sentral will surely cut its policy rates, he added.
Erece said the April print “is a key consideration, especially if inflation continues to be subdued below 2 percent.”
“In addition, inflation print in the US in the coming months also plays a role, as the Fed’s move on their economy also impacts us,” he said.
Policy rate cuts by the Bangko Sentral in the coming months are possible and fundamentally supported by a relatively benign inflation trend, Ricafort said.
