KYIV- Analyst APK-Inform has lowered its Ukraine 2024/25 July-June grain export forecast to 37.2 million metric tons from 39.1 million tons, mostly due to a smaller-than-expected corn harvest and exports, the consultancy said on Monday.
The country’s corn export outlook was revised down sharply to 20 million tons from 22.5 million tons as the corn harvest was expected to fall to 24 million tons from 26.8 million, it said.
APK-Inform slightly raised Ukraine’s 2024 wheat harvest outlook to 21.5 million tons from 21.2 million tons, and exports to 14.4 million tons from 13.8 million tons.
Ukraine is scrambling to ship as much grain as it can, taking advantage of military gains it has made in the Black Sea area to boost exports even as Russia has attacked its ports.
Ukraine is a major global wheat and corn grower and before Russia’s invasion in 2022 the country exported about 6 million tons of grain alone per month via the Black Sea.
Grain sales are a crucial revenue source and while global prices are weak, Ukraine’s cash-strapped farmers have little choice but to push ahead with exports because they need to fund the next winter sowing season.
Ukraine doubled food exports in July to over 4.2 million metric tons from the same month last year, according to data from Ukraine’s UGA traders’ union, despite intensified Russian attacks on Odesa, a key Black Sea export hub, and Izmail, a major port along the Danube River taking grain into Europe.
Ukraine has not yet reported the destinations of its exports in July, but last season it exported most of its wheat to Spain, Egypt and Indonesia, with its corn mostly heading for Spain and China.
So far, Ukraine has exported 3.7 million tons of agricultural goods in July through Odesa and 569,000 tons via the Danube, export data showed. That compared with 291,000 tons via Odesa and 2.07 million tons through the Danube in July 2023.
There were six shipments of corn from Ukraine’s other two operational Black Sea ports of Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi in June and July to Rotterdam, Europe’s busiest port, and Spain’s Cartegna, separate LSEG shipping data showed.
Meanwhile, Russia, the world’s leading wheat exporter, is expanding its Baltic Sea ports as it aims to boost agricultural exports by 50% by 2030 while reducing dependence on traditional Black Sea routes, officials and executives said.
The country, which exported at least 72 million metric tons of grain in the 2023/24 season, is looking at new markets in Latin America and Africa to diversify from its traditional grain markets in North Africa and the Middle East.
It has relied on its Black Sea ports to handle booming agricultural exports for the past decades but the conflict with Ukraine has made the area risky for shipping with both sides regularly striking each other’s facilities and infrastructure.