ECONOMISTS expect remittances by overseas Filipinos this year to top the record high of $38.34 billion reached in 2024, with widening labor corridors as part of job markets diversification amid global disruptions allowing for greater fund inflows.
Given the seasonal highs in remittances associated with Christmas-related spending by families in the Philippines, economists expect a 3 percent increase in funds sent home by overseas Filipinos this year.
On top of the seasonal highs, the diversification of the labor market is also anticipated to strengthen remittance inflows, they said.
Diversification
UnionBank chief economist Carlo Asuncion said the central bank’s 2.8 percent growth target for remittances this year is “well within reach,” supported by robust labor markets and a competitive peso.
“There’s also growing diversification of remittance sources, with new labor corridors opening in the Gulf and ASEAN regions, even as the US remains the top contributor,” Asuncion told this reporter.
The latest Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) data released on Monday showed cash remittances rose 3.1 percent year-on-year to $19.93 billion in the first seven months of 2025, underscoring steady inflows despite global uncertainty. (See related story above on BSP’s remittance data for the seven months to July)
Vital growth engine
Michael Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., stressed that remittances remain a vital growth engine, contributing nearly 10 percent of th country’s gross domestic product.
He also predicts inflows to peak in December as overseas Filipinos send money for holiday spending.
Crisis-resilient
Patrick Ella, economist at Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corp., said remittances have proven resilient across crises.
“Not even the global financial crisis or COVID impacted annual growth,” he said, projecting a 3 percent expansion for 2025 that currently supports household consumption.
Asuncion also pointed to other plus factors for Filipino remittances. “Another trend is the steady rise in sea-based remittances, reflecting strong demand in the maritime sector and higher dollar-denominated wages.”
He also cited the growing use of online and mobile platforms, which reduce costs and improve convenience.
“So far, remittances have shown remarkable resilience despite global headwinds, including slower global growth and geopolitical tensions” Asuncion noted.
“This underscores the stability of overseas employment and the cultural priority Filipinos place on supporting families back home,” he said.
Potential risks
Still, analysts flagged potential risks ahead.
First Metro Securities head of research Cristina Ulang warned that a 1 percent US tax on remittances starting January 2026 could dent inflows, while external shocks such as trade disputes and currency volatility may weigh on growth.
“Analysts caution that prolonged global uncertainty could temper growth in 2026,” Asuncion said.
