The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has maintained its growth projections for the Philippines for this year and next, as household consumption and investment continue to drive the economy.
In its Asian Development Outlook report released on Wednesday, ADB said its growth forecast for the Philippines is unchanged in 2024 and in 2025, at six percent and 6.2 percent, respectively.
Both estimates fall within the lower range of the government’s growth assumptions, at six to 6.5 percent this year and six to eight percent in 2025.
“Moderating inflation and monetary policy easing should continue to support growth,” the ADB said.
The report said on the supply side, buoyant services sector, construction and manufacturing are contributing to overall growth.
“Services will continue to be the dominant growth driver, with retail trade, tourism, and information technology–business process outsourcing as major contributors,” the ADB said.
The Manila-based agency said public infrastructure projects will continue to lift growth, along with brisk private construction.
ADB’s projection for the Philippines is among the highest in Southeast Asia, only falling next to the outlook for Vietnam of 6.4 percent for 2024 and 6.6 percent for 2025.
The report, however, said geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation and severe weather events pose risks to the sub-region’s growth, particularly in agriculture and infrastructure.
Last Tuesday, the World Bank’s growth outlook for the Philippines this year has been revised downward due to weaker-than-expected growth in the third quarter of 2024.
According to the Washington-based agency’s Philippine Economic Update, the projection has been revised to 5.9 percent from six percent.
Growth is expected to hit 6.1 percent in 2025 and six percent in 2026.
Meanwhile, the ADB revised its inflation expectation for this year to 3.3 percent from the previous outlook of 3.6 percent.
For next year, inflation is seen to settle at 3.2 percent.
