Socioeconomic planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan yesterday said expanding by seven to eight percent this year might be a challenge considering the impact of external developments.
However, growing six percent and above would still allow the Philippines to be one of the fastest growing economies in the region.
Arsenio Balisacan, National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) secretary, said in a press briefing at the NEDA office in Pasig yesterday the interagency Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) under the new administration will meet for the first time on Friday to discuss the macroeconomic assumptions.
“We don’t know yet what the decision will be and what the outcomes of the discussion will be, but I would expect that given the unexpected (surges) in some of these (commodity) prices and the prolonged disruptions initially triggered by this (Russia and) Ukraine war, seven to eight percent might be a big challenge,” Balisacan, who was also NEDA chief during President Benigno Aquino III’s term, said after the NEDA turnover ceremony.
“Still, if we can grow at six to seven percent this year, that would be remarkable. We’d probably remain among the fastest growing countries in Asia still. I think that we can manage to still be ahead of the pack,” he added.
The DBCC last May revised its assumptions for economic growth and inflation this year, among other macroeconomic figures, following the uptick in the price of food and energy as a result of ongoing geopolitical tensions overseas and disrupted supply chains.
The DBCC then said in light of heightened external risks such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China’s slowdown and monetary normalization in the United States, the full-year growth assumption for 2022 was slightly revised to seven to eight percent, from the previous seven to nine percent.
The upper range of the gross domestic product estimate was revised downward even as the economy expanded by a strong 8.3 percent in the first quarter of the year.
“We’re expecting in fact a little above six percent for this year and we are targeting for the entire duration of the (Marcos) administration, while it is not officially said yet by the DBCC, but we believe that 6.5 to eight percent for the entire duration, if we can achieve that, that will be spectacular,” Balisacan said.
“But for me it is even more spectacular if that comes with improvement in the inclusivity of growth, in the expansion of economic opportunities, so that inequality and (lack of) access to opportunities is much reduced,” he added.
Meanwhile, Balisacan said the targets anchored on the Ambisyon Natin 2040 may need to be revisited, given the setbacks caused by the pandemic.
“It does appear that the sharp contraction of the economy in 2020 could have made an impact on our ability to meet the original targets (by) 2040. Our priority is to recover quickly from the pandemic and go back to the high growth trajectory. But at this time, mindful that we would want to make that growth more inclusive and more resilient. So that next time we have pandemics like this or any disruptions, technological or global, we will not be sharply affected,” Balisacan said.
Balisacan meanwhile said he will recommend the resumption of full face-to-face classes.
“The cost to our economy, to our society, to our children, to our human capital, vis-a-vis the cost of that risk of infection, I think we have to (look into that and) do that exercise.
It’s clear that our hospitals show that we can manage the risk at this point and so there’s no reason why we should not open up the schools,” Balisacan said.
“As I said the cost of that scarring is on human capital. It’s not going to affect us now, but it’s going to affect the future of these children, when they join the labor market five to 10 years from now. They will not be as competitive as our neighbors who have already opened up and provided better access to education,” he added.
Balisacan said the pandemic has been so inequitable, and has exacerbated the inequality and lack of access to opportunities in education.
Former NEDA chief Karl Kendrick Chua earlier said that he is hoping that the current administration will take the resumption of full face-to-face classes “very seriously,” as he pointed out that the reduced capacity in classrooms is already an obsolete rule.
Chua said last week that he has already earlier sent letters to former education secretary Leonor Briones, as well as health secretary Francisco Duque, on the dismantling of restrictions in schools.
“I have personally wrote secretary Briones and secretary Duque twice, in March and in May, and we have had many discussion in the IATF (Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases) and through messages, so these have been communicated and I hope it will be part of the transition message of secretary Briones to… vice president and (education) secretary (Sara) Duterte,” Chua said.
“The NEDA mandate covers development, and for us education is a foundation of development, so I hope this will be taken very seriously. The repercussion on the children’s present and future development are very much affected by their ability to learn better,” he added.
