AS much as 400,000 overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) could be adversely affected by the combined impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which resulted in global economic stoppage and lockdowns.
Some of these OFWs might even need to be sent back home.
The Ateneo de Manila University Department of Economics and Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development published over the weekend a report titled Possible economic impacts of falling oil prices, the pandemic, and the looming global recession onto overseas Filipinos and their remittances.
The policy brief, authored by Alvin Ang and Jeremaiah Opiniano, said the COVID-19 may be the “most challenging crisis” facing the migration management system of the country.
The report pointed out that both the countries receiving overseas migrants and migrant-origin countries like the Philippines are trying to survive the pandemic.
“With much of the global economy in a lockdown, many OFWs are unable to report for work and, at the same time, are unable to send money back home more frequently,” the policy brief said.
“In addition, declining oil prices in the past few weeks are a corollary challenge, threatening the stability of OFWs in the Middle East,” it added.
The report said many countries are on lockdown, while all the oil producers in the Middle East, where around half of OFWs are located, are at risk with falling oil prices.
“If this price trend continues, the Middle East might be forced to stop oil production and possibly lay off many workers — including Filipinos,” the study said.
Given the current situation, the authors said the “base-to-worst case” scenarios could lead to about 300,000 to 400,000 OFWs being affected by lay-offs and pay cuts, while some of them may need to be repatriated.
Cash remittances could also potentially decline from $30 billion in 2019 to $27 billion this year, under the base case, or to $24 billion in the worst case scenario.
“That is roughly 10 to 20 percent or $3 billion to $6 billion less, year on year — this to become steepest drop of remittance inflows in Philippine migration history,” the policy brief said.
“These base-to-worst case scenarios are significant numbers hitting the economy externally and then internally. With overseas Filipinos’ remittances fueling national consumption, we can lose 20 percent to 40 percent of consumption due to the passthrough effect of remittances,” it added.
The report identified measures that can be done now. These include labor and foreign officials monitoring and informing the public how many overseas Filipinos will be displaced from their jobs; while embassies and consulates have to anticipate and monitor expected job displacements affecting Filipinos.
It also said diplomatic officials should be given leeway to negotiate with ministries of labor possible steps to keep foreign workers and, to the extent possible, include them in their countries’ social protection programs.
“Globally-mapped information on these arrangements must be tracked. That way, these resources from host countries will give overseas Filipinos and their families some wherewithal apart from what migration and non-migration government agencies back home will be giving (e.g. social amelioration program funds under the Bayanihan to Heal as One Act). Resources coming from host countries will buy relevant Philippine government agencies some time,” the policy brief said.
It added that labor and foreign officials may likewise have to initiate dialogues with the International Labor Organization and the International Organization for Migration on how to assist distressed migrant workers affected by the pandemic.
The policy brief further said the Overseas Workers Welfare Administration may have to offer Metro Manila-based temporary shelters as 14-day quarantine facilities for displaced returning OFWs.
“Since PhilHealth will be covering hospitalization expenses of COVID-19 cases, this should also apply to COVID-19-infected returning overseas workers through PhilHealth’s Overseas Workers Program. The Social Security System and its OFW membership program should (also) allow OFW members to avail of the benefits of membership at this critical juncture,” the report said.
Lastly, the study pointed out that prior to going overseas, OFWs are compelled to pay accredited private insurance companies insurance premiums to cover repatriation expenses.
“This arrangement must now be activated by the private insurance companies concerned,” it said.
