The National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) is calling on regulators to strategize short-term and long-term solutions to address the ever increasing need for power vis-í -vis power consumption trends.
Citing forecasts from the Department of Energy (DOE), NGCP said the total system peak demand of 12,285 megawatts (MW) for Luzon is expected to occur in May 2020, an increase of 8.3 percent from the actual 2019 peak demand of 11,344 MW which occurred on June 21, 2019.
The systems operator said for Visayas and Mindanao, peak demand in 2019 occurred in May, a shift from previous years when peak demands were recorded in the last quarter of the year.
“There appears to be a shift in the way consumers use power. Luzon’s annual peak demand was long driven by increased use during the hot summer months. Mindanao and Visayas peak usage usually occur at the end of the year. The regulator and authorities must take a closer look at the shifts in peak demand and strategize short term and long term solutions to address the ever increasing need for power vis-í -vis power consumption trends,” NGCP warned.
The company said thin electricity supply is seen between April and June 2020 even with an expected incoming 700 MW capacity from new power plants as the Luzon grid needs around 4 percent of the peak demand or around 491 MW in regulating power to stabilize the grid.
If the net operating margin falls below these numbers, yellow and red alerts may be issued due to lack of reserves and can translate to a possible load dropping or rotating power interruptions.
The company said in 2019, NGCP issued 50 yellow alerts and 14 red alerts between March and November, and implemented rotating power interruptions within the Luzon grid from April to June.
“With the increase in power demand, lack of new baseload plants, power plants decommissioning and longer unplanned maintenance shutdowns of aging plants, as well as the unpredictable weather, NGCP is urging the authorities to focus efforts on stemming what seems to be an impending power shortage in Luzon, especially during the summer season,” NGCP said.
The Independent Electricity
Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP) said based on its latest projections, average price of power in the spot market for the first half of the year will generally be lower compared to 2019.
IEMOP, however, issued the same warning of tight supply during summer.
It said on average, effective spot settlement prices (ESSP) for January and February 2020 were at P3.03 per kilowatt hour (kWh) and P3.47 per kWh which are lower than 2019 figures of P4.63 per kWh and P4.33 per kWh, respectively.
Robinson Descanzo, IEMOP trading operations head and acting chief operating officer, told reporters in a briefing in Ortigas City yesterday the best case scenario is that power supply will be sufficient during the summer months only if planned power plants will be on outage in May, April and June.
But Descanzo warned the worst case scenario is that the combined unplanned and planned outages of 1,200 MW can surely cause power disruptions during some weeks in May and June.
“Worst possible scenario would be more than 1,200 MW of power plants will be lost and that gives us no capacity for reserves. There will be barely enough remaining capacity so, in some periods especially in May and June, we might have rotating load shedding brownouts in some areas. Those are scenarios that may or may not happen,” Descanzo explained.
