The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) warned that 1,800 to 1,900 megawatts (MW) worth of power is expected to be out from the Luzon Grid during some days in April and May which may cause low power reserves.
Citing data from the Department of Energy (DOE), Agnes Devanadera, ERC chairman and chief executive officer, said efforts are underway to find ways to help ease the problem.
“Internally, pending items which need movement in terms of permitting and inspections — we got more engineers than we already have but it is just a small aspect,” Devanadera said in a briefing in Pasig City yesterday.
She said the possible shortage of up to 1,900 MW worth of power during the summer months is only from power plants set to undergo planned maintenance shutdowns. This does not count the unplanned outages.
Devanadera cited DOE projections that show extreme power shortages could occur in the fourth week of April and third week of May.
Last week, the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP) also warned that power supply in the Luzon Grid during the summer might be as tight as last year since no additional power plants will come online during the first quarter of 2020.
In 2019, combined peak demand for Luzon and Visayas was at 13,450 MW and is expected to reach 14,191 MW this year, using an average peak demand growth rate of 5.6 percent, IEMOP said.
“We see a similar scenario from 2019 during the summer months this year. Price spikes will occur because of tight supply… No new additional plants will come before summer so there are really threats of high spot prices,” Robinson Descanzo, the firm’s trading operations head and acting chief operating officer, said recently.
Effective spot settlement price (ESSP) of electricity in April, May and June 2019 averaged at P8.18 per kilowatt hour (kWh), P7.15 per kWh and P8.38 per kWh, respectively. The entire 2019 average ESSP ended at P5.43 per kWh, a 47 percent jump, compared to 2018’s 3.69 per kWh.
IEMOP said the primary cause of rising spot prices is thinning supply margins as available generation capacities are no longer sufficient to support the increasing demand as well as the heightened occurrences of scheduled and unforced maintenance outages and insufficient development of new generation capacities.
At present, the biggest power plant set to be operational this year is the 2×668 MW GN Power Dinginin coal plant in Bataan whose first unit is expected to be operational by April and the second unit by the fourth quarter, Descanzo said.
