PH back to ‘low’ risk for COVID — Duque

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MORE than a month since a wave of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases swept the country, the Philippines’ transmission classification is back to “low” risk, Health Secretary Francisco Duque III said on Monday night.

Duque made the report to President Duterte during the Talk to the People address as he cited the drop to -74 of the virus’ two-week growth rate and its average daily attack rate to 5.26.

He likewise told the President that the country’s bed utilization use is at 28.67 percent, ICU utilization at 34.12 percent and mechanical ventilator use at 18.39 percent.

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Duque said 13 regions, including the National Capital Region (NCR), are now under low-risk category, with only four regions — namely Davao (Region XI), Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), Western Visayas (Region VI) and Soccsksargen (Region XII) — still under “moderate” risk.

Only the intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy of the Davao region remained at moderate risk.

“(All) these tell us a good thing: (That) we are able to manage our cases and our health system’s capacity is very much prepared for any eventuality, (like) if we experience another surge. We are seeing an excess and we now have a low utilization rate,” he added.

The Philippines on Tuesday logged 2,010 new COVID-19 cases, bringing the total number of active cases to 72,305 in the country and total number of cases to 3.64 million.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire, in a briefing with Cabinet Secretary Karlo Nograles on Tuesday, said the average daily cases this week was recorded at 3,521, or lower by 56 percent compared to last week.

Vergeire said cases in the country may, however, go down to as low as 83 per day if the public sustains its compliance with minimum public health standards.

The DOH projection, she explained, is based on the qualities of the Omicron variant, mobility, vaccination coverage, and compliance with minimum public health standards.

“Kung mapapanatili po natin ang current minimum public health standards natin, ang bilang po ng mga kaso sa bansa ay maaaring bumaba to as slow as 83 cases lamang pagsapit ng March 15 (If we maintain the current minimum public health standards, the number of cases in the country could go down to as slow as 83 cases by March 15),” she said.

Vergeire said a decrease in compliance with the minimum health standard by about 12 percent could result in an increase in COVID cases to 2,077 per day, and to 7,748 cases per day if compliance decreases by 19 percent.

“Kung ninanais po nating mapanatiling mababa ang ating mga kaso dito sa ating bansa, inaanyayahan po natin ang bawat Pilipino na mag-mask, hugas, iwas air flow bakuna upang makita po natin hanggang sa dulo ang pagbaba ng kaso ng COVID-19 (If we want to maintain the low number of cases, each Filipino should continue to wear their face masks, wash hands, avoid air flow and be vaccinated so we can continue to see the decline in COVID-19 cases),” she said.

The independent OCTA Research said it does not see the possibility of COVID-19 cases resurging in Metro Manila in the coming months.

In a televised public briefing, OCTA fellow Guido David said: “There is minimal risk of seeing a resurgence or major spike in cases. (That is why) we support the extension of the Alert Level 2 until the end of the month.”

David said they also see the numbers improving nationwide. “The 1,000 to 2,000 cases is really possible by the end of February and early March. Seeing less than 1,000 is even possible if the decline in cases happen faster,” he said.

Similarly, David said the positivity rate in the NCR is already down to 6.8 percent, which is already close to the five percent benchmark of the World Health Organization for positivity rate.

Add to this, he said, is the high vaccination rate in the NCR, which would make hospitalization less likely. — With Gerard Naval

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