Case growth, high attack rates noted nationwide
AMID the spike in coronavirus disease cases in the country, the Department of Health yesterday re-classified the Philippines as a “high risk” area for COVID-19 from “moderate” risk” last month when there was a decrease in cases in most regions.
The Philippines was last classified under “high risk” during the surge seen last April.
In a virtual press briefing, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said the change in classification was due to the 47 percent growth rate in new COVID-19 cases recorded over the past two weeks, from 5,769 cases daily (July 12-25) to 8,829 cases per day (July 26 to August, and the average daily attack rate (ADAR) pegged at 7.20 per 100,000 population.
Quoting from a DOH report, Vergeire said seven regions are currently at high risk due to moderate growth rate and high average daily attack rate, including the National Capital Region (NCR), Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley, Calabarzon, Central Visayas, and Northern Mindanao.
On the other hand, five regions are at “moderate risk,” namely Western Visayas, Central Luzon, Soccsksargen, Eastern Visayas, and the Bicol Region.
The DOH report also listed 42 local government units (LGUs) that have been placed under Alert Level 4, or areas with moderate to high risk classification and health capacity greater than 70 percent in the current week.
The LGUs include the cities of Las Piñas, Muntinlupa, Pateros, Quezon, Taguig, Malabon, Makati, San Juan, Valenzuela, and Marikina in Metro Manila; as well as Apayao, Baguio City, Benguet, Ilocos Norte, Cagayan, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Angeles City, Bataan, Olongapo City, Pampanga, Tarlac, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, Quezon, Lucena City, and Camarines Sur in Luzon.
Also under the Alert Level 4 are Iloilo, Iloilo City, Cebu, Cebu City, Lapu-Lapu City, Mandaue City, Tacloban City, and Ormoc City in the Visayas; and Bukidnon, Cagayan De Oro City, Camiguin, Davao City, General Santos City, and South Cotabato in Mindanao.
A total of 46 LGUs are under Alert Level 3, or areas with moderate to high risk classification, with total beds and ICU utilization of less than 70 percent.
These include the cities of Caloocan, Mandaluyong, Manila, Navotas, Parañaque, Pasig, and Pasay in Metro Manila; as well as Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ilocos Sur, Pangasinan, Dagupan City, Batanes, city of Santiago, Isabela, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, Rizal, Marinduque, Romblon, Puerto Princesa City, Masbate, Naga City, Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, and Sorsogon in Luzon.
Also under Alert Level 3 are Aklan, Antique, Bacolod City, Capiz, Leyte, Northern Samar, Southern Leyte, and Samar (Western Samar) in the Visayas; and Zamboanga Del Sur, Iligan City, Lanao Del Norte, Misamis Oriental, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental, Cotabato (North Cotabato), Sultan Kudarat, Surigao Del Sur, and Lanao Del Sur in Mindanao.
Asked why cases continue to be high despite the imposition of stricter community quarantine restrictions, Vergeire cited the 14-day incubation period of COVID-19.
“We have still yet to see in this recent week the effects of the lockdown. It won’t manifest lower cases immediately,” she explained.
“It will take two to three weeks for us to see the effects of higher restrictions,” added Vergeire.
The Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases had imposed stricter quarantine restrictions in different parts of the country after cases began to climb.
The DOH has previously stated that the highly-transmissible Delta variant of COVID-19 is one of the driving factors in the spike in cases.
Vergeire said 13 of the country’s 17 regions were found to have Delta variant cases. Only the regions of Mimaropa, Soccsksargen, Caraga, and Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao have not seen Delta variant cases in their localities, she said.
Vergeire said the Delta variant has been detected in 26 provinces, 29 cities, and all 17 NCR cities and municipality.
There are currently 450 Delta variant cases detected in the country, with 355 being local, 69 returning overseas Filipinos, and 26 still under verification.
Of the total Delta variant cases, the DOH said 426 have recovered, 10 died, 13 active, and 1 under verification.
With COVID-19 cases continuously increasing, the DOH said nearly 250 medical facilities and hospitals are currently at “critical risk” because their healthcare utilization is already at 85 percent. Healthcare utilization refers to isolation, ward, and ICU beds as well as mechanical ventilator dedicated for COVID-19 patients.
Of the 236 hospitals at “critical risk,” Vergeire said 25 can be found in the NCR.
According to the DOH, areas under Alert Level 4 urgently need to increase hospital beds, especially ICU beds, ensure sufficient oxygen supply, and immediately and properly refer severe and critical cases.
“Health care capacity issues must not only be addressed on an LGU level but on a regional and national level as well,” said Vergeire.
