Cautions still too early to assume cases on a downtrend
CORONAVIRUS disease (COVID-19) indicators in Metro Manila are going down, the independent OCTA Research group yesterday said but cautioned against hastily concluding a downtrend in infections.
OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David, during the Laging Handa public briefing, said the growth rate in the National Capital Region (NCR) has gone down to -1 percent, which is lower than the 2 percent recorded on Sunday.
The region’s reproduction rate also dipped to 2.67 percent from 6 percent on January 6, while the positivity rate is at 50 percent from 54 percent last week.
David said “there is optimism that the cases may already be going down in Metro Manila” but “it is better to wait” before concluding that there is already a downtrend.
He said it is best to wait a few more days or until next week to see if infections and the indicators would continue to go down in NCR before concluding that the cases are plateauing or are already on a downtrend.
“I would say it’s a good sign dahil bumababa lahat ng indicators natin. Pero again, iyon nga sinabi ninyo nga, mas magandang hintayin natin (I would say it’s a good sign because the indicators are all going down. But as you said, it is better to wait),” David said.
David said OCTA is hopeful that the Philippines would follow the trend in South Africa where the cases started a decline after a two-week surge.
David appealed to the public to continue observing minimum health protocols, especially the wearing of face masks and observing social distancing, as well as following precautions such as avoiding unnecessary travel and getting vaccinated against COVID-19 to help keep the cases down.
On an earlier pronouncement of the Department of Health (DOH) that COVID cases could still peak towards the end of January, David said OCTA is using a different model and method, which is why their conclusions are different.
David said the declining cases in NCR is mirrored in Cavite, Rizal and Bulacan.
However, COVID cases are starting to increase in other parts of the country, such as in Tacloban City, Cebu, Pangasinan, La Union, Benguet, Zamboanga City and Davao del Sur.
He said there is also an increasing number of cases in parts of Region I (Ilocos), II (Cagayan Valley), III (Central Luzon), V (Bicol), VI (Western VIsayas), VII (Central Visayas), and Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR).
“Actually, the country is now starting to see an increase in cases which will affect the peak period for the whole country. But it is possible that in NCR and in Cavite, Rizal, Bulacan, we may be nearing or have already reached the peak,” David said.
The country recorded 37,070 new active cases yesterday bringing the total active cases in the country to 290,938 and the total COVID cases to 3.24 million.
At the Dr. Jose N. Rodriguez Memorial Hospital and Sanitarium (Tala Hospital), 274 of its 520 COVID beds are currently occupied with eight severe cases, seven critical cases and 259 moderate cases.
Tala Hospital director Dr. Alfonso Famaran said of the 274 patients, 55 percent are unvaccinated, two percent have only received their first dose of vaccines and 43 percent are fully vaccinated.
Famaran said Tala, being a referral hospital for COVID patients, does not admit mild, moderate and non-oxygen requiring cases.
He said they have long prepared for a possible rise in COVID cases and had stocked up on medicines, personal protective equipment (PPE) and other items needed to take care of the severe to critical COVID patients.
Famaran said they remain fully operational even if 510 of their 1,300 personnel are currently in home quarantine or isolation due to COVD-19. He said Tala had received a 229-manpower augmentation from the DOH and the PNP General Hospital.
He said 99.2 percent of their personnel are fully vaccinated and many of them have already received their booster shots.
