THE number of new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in Metro Manila has been reduced by almost half, the independent OCTA Research Team said yesterday as it credited the lower numbers to the imposition of stricter quarantine restrictions in the NCR Plus.
In a television interview, OCTA fellow Guido David said current data shows that there has been a 46 percent decrease in new COVID-19 cases as compared to its peak seen last month.
“What we’re seeing is that the average number of cases in the NCR is now around 3,000 per day, down from the 5,500 during the peak,” said David.
“Our trend in the NCR is still improving. Hopefully, it will still decrease,” he added.
David attributed the decrease in cases to the imposition of the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) from March 29 to April 11 and, subsequently, the modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) in Metro Manila.
“What we see now is the effect of ECQ and MECQ until April 30,” he said.
However, David noted how the COVID-19 situation in Metro Manila is not even among all local government units (LGUs).
OCTA noted how the cities of Muntinlupa, Las Piñas, Parañaque, and Muntinlupa only have minimal to low decreases in their reported daily cases.
On the other hand, OCTA said the cities of Manila, Navotas, and Pasay, and the municipality of Pateros, have seen their cases drop to as high as 75 percent.
“We can say it’s a downward trend. But it is still unstable because the decrease of cases in some LGUs are not that stable,” said David.
Asked if the government can already ease the community restrictions in Metro Manila, David said it would be better if the assessment is made next week.
“We can ease restrictions, gradually, but we still have to reassess maybe by next week,” said David.
Health Secretary Francisco Duque III said the national government wants to lower the number of cases to around 1,700 a day, or similar to the January to February 2021 level.
In his report to President Duterte during the weekly Talk to the People, Duque said there has been a decreasing trend in the number of COVID-19 cases since the second week of April, noting that from a high of 10,187 average daily cases during the April 12 to 18 week, the figure went down to 8,782 average daily cases from April 19 to 25, and to 8,227 average daily cases from April 26 to May 2.
“We are targeting to lower it to the January- February level of 1,700 average daily cases,” he said.
Duque said most of the cases are still reported from the National Capital Region, the Calabarzon (Region IV-A), and Central Luzon (Region III).
Also, Duque reported that the average two-week daily attack rate has dropped from 9.21 from April 4 to 17 to 7.83 from April 18 to May 1.
Duque said the government continues to improve the country’s healthcare care capacity by putting up more modular hospitals and isolation centers, including isolation and intensive care unit (ICU) beds to accommodate patients.
He said DOH hospitals in Metro Manila have increased their ICU beds from 215 in April to 491 in May.
The ICU utilization rate in the region remains at 74 percent, or the high-risk level, which needs to be lowered to the moderate-risk or low-risk level of less than 60 percent, Duque said.
He also said the government is closely monitoring the Cagayan Valley region, which has the highest ICU utilization rate of 86 percent and isolation bed use of 72 percent, followed by Central Luzon with 79 percent ICU and 58 percent isolation bed utilization, Cordillera Administrative Region with 78 percent ICU bed and 70 isolation bed use, and Calabarzon with 76 percent ICU and 65 percent isolation bed utilization.
The Philippine General Hospital (PGH) yesterday said that more than 90 percent of its beds assigned for COVID-19 patients remain occupied.
In a radio interview, PGH spokesman Jonas del Rosario said 234 out of the hospital’s 250 COVID beds still occupied by patients. He said even their ICUs and emergency room continue to be full.
Del Rosario also bared that there are about 80 patients in the waiting list of their charity ward.
He said the continued high occupancy rate actually caught them by surprise considering that there has already been a downward trend prior to the last weekend.
“We already saw a downward trend when we had 216 out of 250 beds occupied. But, in the last 3 days, it went up again. We were surprised it has gone up to 234 again. We thought it will already continuously go down,” he said.
Given the erratic trend in the healthcare utilization rate, Del Rosario said it would be better if the MECQ will still be extended in the NCR Plus area.
“At least, based on our numbers, the situation remains the same. So, if we base it on our numbers, it’s better if it (MECQ) is extended,” said del Rosario.
Contact tracing czar Benjamin Magalong said the country’s contact tracing efficiency ratio for COVID-19 patients and their close contacts has worsened.
“To be honest with you, I would say it’s still the weakest link among the pillars (in the fight against COVID-19),” Magalong said during the Laging Handa press briefing, referring to the government’s contact tracing efforts.
In Metro Manila, Magalong lamented the contact tracing efficiency ratio dropped to 1:2 last month but this has improved to 1:5 as of one week ago.
“Overall, our contact tracing (efficiency ratio) is only at 1:4,” said Magalong, noting that the ratio in February and March, prior to the surge in COVID-19 cases in April, was already at 1:6.
The country has a total of 249,000 contact tracers, not including the 5,700 contact tracers that are in the process of being hired under the Tulong Panghanapbuhay sa Ating Disadvantaged/Displaced Workers or TUPAD program of the Department of Labor and Employment.
Magalong said the current contact tracing ratio of 1:4 is still far from the ideal or standard ratio of 1:15 – which he said was already adjusted from the model 1:37 ratio “to be more realistic.”
The Quezon City government said it has deployed over 1,300 new COVID-19 contact tracers in response to the spike of COVID-19 cases in the city.
“The city now has over 2,600 contact tracers who will be interviewing COVID-19 cases to gather data on their close contacts, travel history, and conduct health assessments,” it said in a statement.
It said the 1,347 new tracers were hired through DOLE’s TUPAD program. — With Jocelyn Montemayor, Victor Reyes and Noel Talacay
