DAYS before government leaders sit down to assess the impact of the current modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) in the NCR Plus, the independent OCTA Research Team yesterday said the reproduction rate of the coronavirus in the National Capital Region continues to drop.
In its latest report, OCTA Research said the reproduction rate has slowed down to 0.67 during the May 2 to 8 period, from the 0.69 during the April 25 to May 1 period.
If the trend continues, the group said Metro Manila will likely record an average of less than 1,900 new cases by May 14, the day when the MECQ in the region and the provinces of Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna and Rizal, or collectively called the NCR Plus, would end.
The report showed an average of 2,172 new COVID-19 cases per day in the NCR from May 2 to 8, a significant drop from the 7,000 to 10,000 plus daily cases in late March, which had prompted Malacañang to place the NCR Plus under strict enhanced community quarantine from March 29 to April 11.
“The current daily average is 61 percent lower compared to the peak of the surge on March 29 to April 4. The one- week growth rate in the NCR was -31 percent,” the OCTA said in its monitoring report issued on Sunday.
In the same report, the OCTA said Metro Manila’s positivity rate, or the number of positive results over the total number of COVID-19 tests conducted, was at 14 percent of the average 23, 100 tests per day conducted during the past week.
Of the 17 local government units (LGUs) in the NCR, the OCTA monitoring report said Navotas had the lowest average daily attack rate [ADR], or the lowest number of COVID-19 cases per population, with only 6.74 or 18 new cases per day.
Next to Navotas were Malabon with 10.46, Manila with 11.11, Caloocan with 11.37 and Pasay with 12.30.
On the other hand, the LGUs with the highest number of recorded daily cases were Pateros with 58.82, San Juan with 26.72, Pasig with 24.20, Taguig with 22.36 and Mandaluyong with 21.01.
The OCTA likewise reported that COVID-19 hospital occupancy rate in the region decreased to 50 percent, with only 822 ICU beds occupied for a utilization rate of 67 percent.
On Saturday, the OCTA flagged the cities of Cagayan de Oro, Puerto Princesa and Bacolod as “areas of concern” due to an increase in COVID-19 cases.
OCTA Research fellow Guido David had said the situation was no cause for alarm yet because “based on history, we can see that these smaller LGUs are able to control the situation easily.”
David said data analyzed by the group showed that for the past week, Puerto Princesa recorded a 78 percent increase in daily cases, while Cagayan de Oro reported a 75 percent spike.
Bacolod City, on the other hand, reported a 19 percent increase in cases. Calamba City in Laguna also saw a 21 percent spike in COVID-19 cases during the previous week despite it being part of the NCR Plus bubble.
STRICTER CQ
Cabinet Secretary Karlo Nograles over the weekend said the Inter-Agency Task Force on the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF-EID) is assessing “some” LGUs following monitoring reports that indicate increase number of cases and hospital utilization.
Nograles, who is the concurrent co-chairman of the IATF, deferred identifying the LGUs but said the Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG) is now in consultation with the concerned local executives with regards to a proposal to upgrade the quarantine classification of the said areas.
“We are looking at some LGUs, we are observing if they will have an increase in classification or if we will retain it because these LGUs are a cause for concern. Right now, DILG is talking with them because of the increased utilization rate of ICU and hospital beds,” he said.
He said the national government is completing the data on the LGUS and evaluating the figures. “We will make the proper announcements when the time comes,” he added.
Nograles reiterated that healthcare utilization rate, along with the attack rate and two-week growth rate, are among the factors considered by the IATF in determining the quarantine classification for an area at a given month.
Last Friday, the IATF placed Zamboanga City under MECQ effective immediately until May 14, as it downgraded Tacloban City to modified general community quarantine (MGCQ) until May 31.
Zamboanga City was previously under MGCQ, while Tacloban was under GCQ.
At present, the NCR Plus, Santiago City, Quirino and Abra are all under MECQ.
Nograles said the government continues to balance health and economy in deciding the quarantine classifications.
He said if the quarantine classification, especially in the NCR Plus, is downgraded it would mean more industries would be reopened, which would pave the way for more people returning to work.
He said if the MECQ is retained, the government would consider if there are certain industries that can be reopened at a limited capacity to boost the economy. — With Jocelyn Montemayor
