4 regions remain at high risk – DOH
METRO Manila, considered as the epicenter of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in the Philippines, is now considered to be at “low risk,” according to the Department of Health (DOH).
But while the situation in the National Capital Region has greatly improved, DOH – Epidemiology Bureau (EB) Director Dr. Alethea de Guzman said four other regions in the Visayas and Mindanao are now at “high risk” due to growth in COVID-19 cases and high average daily attack rates (ADAR).
De Guzman said the high risk regions are Caraga (Region XIII), Western Visayas (Region VI), Davao Region (Region XI), and Soccsksargen (Region XII).
De Guzman said NCR is now considered as low risk due to the decline in new cases reported as well as its low average daily attack rate. “The NCR is classified as low risk because it is showing decline in cases by 23 percent in the last two weeks, while its ADAR is now at 5.7 only,” she said.
“Case trend in NCR is exhibiting a slow decline after a plateau,” she added.
She said the decline in cases may be attributed to the ongoing COVID-19 inoculation program of the government.
The health official likewise pointed to the government’s effective response initiatives and the general public’s compliance with health protocols.
“We need to have multiple strategies plus the vaccine in order to see a sustained decline in cases,” De Guzman said.
She, however, stressed that they are not yet satisfied with the decline in cases in Metro Manila.
“The goal now is to push it down even further so that we can reach our pre-peak levels of less than 500 new cases,” said de Guzman.
During the peak in late March to early April, NCR cases averaged 5,534 new cases per day.
On the other hand, the DOH – EB said the three Mindanao regions and one from the Visayas are considered as high risk because of their high reported average daily attack rates and two-week growth rate.
Data shows that Caraga has a 27 percent increase in cases, Western Visayas with 41 percent, Davao Region with 53 percent, and Soccsksargen with 33 percent.
As for their ADARs, DOH noted that Caraga is at 9.95 per 100,000 population, Western Visayas with 8.83, Davao Region with 8.16, and Soccsksargen with 7.01.
De Guzman said two other Visayas regions — Central Visayas and Eastern Visayas — are at “moderate risk” after seeing growth rates of 69 percent and 98 percent, respectively.
“All areas are showing upward trend,” she noted.
On the other hand, she said the other Mindanao regions, namely Zamboanga Peninsula (Region IX), Northern Mindanao (Region 10), and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) are already at “low risk” after seeing decline in cases of 0, 1, and 10 percent, respectively.
“BARMM and Region 10 are showing a decreasing trend in cases, while Region 9 is showing a plateau in cases,” said De Guzman.
On a more granular scale, the DOH identified 33 priority areas or local government units (LGUs) classified as being moderate to high risk.
“These 33 priority areas (were identified) based on risk class and high to critical risk in healthcare utilization rate and ICU utilization rate,” said the DOH.
Considered at high risk are Naga City, Iloilo City, Capiz, Guimaras, Bacolod City, Negros Oriental, Tacloban City, Zamboanga del Norte, Davao City, Davao del Norte, South Cotabato, Lucena City, Butuan City, and Surigao del Sur.
Tagged as moderate risk are La Union, Cagayan, Nueva Vizcaya, Bataan, Albay, Sorsogon, Antique, Ormoc City, Cagayan de Oro City, Bukidnon, Davao de Oro, General Santos City, Quezon, Puerto Princesa City, Occidental Mindoro, Cotabato City, Surigao del Norte, Makati City, and Las Piñas City.
Meanwhile, the DOH reported that the number of COVID-19 deaths have continued to decline since the peak last April, which reached a high of 121 average deaths per day.
De Guzman said they are looking to bring it down, at least, to the level last year’s December average of 29 daily deaths.
“We are now at 56 deaths per day. This is an improvement, but we want to push it down even further,” she said.
“Our mortality curve is not seeing a rapid decline as we saw for our case data,” added De Guzman.
The National Institute of Health (NIH) yesterday called for stricter border controls and the hastening of the national vaccination program rollout due to the growing threat of the Delta variant of the coronavirus.
As of the latest Philippine Genome Center (PGC) whole-genome sequencing report, there are now 17 Delta variant cases in the Philippines, with 15 having recovered, 1 death, and 1 active case.
In a virtual press briefing, NIH Executive Director Dr. Eva Maria Cutiongco dela Paz said it is imperative for the country to enhance existing measures given the higher transmissibility characteristics of the Delta (India or B.1.617.2) variant.
“Having strict border control is really crucial because it will block the entry of the Delta variant. It buys us time to have our system prepared,” said Dela Paz.
By border control, the NIH official said there is a need to strictly implement the 10-day facility-based quarantine and 4-day home isolation policy.
It will also be helpful, she added, if the country will consistently ban travelers from countries with high prevalence of the Delta variant.
“These are very important strategies if we wouldn’t want to see more Delta variant cases here,” said Dela Paz.
Citing studies abroad, Dela Paz noted how the Delta variant poses higher transmissibility compared to other variants of COVID-19.
“The Delta variant is the fastest and fittest coronavirus strain yet, and it will ‘pick off’ the most vulnerable people, especially in places with low COVID-19 vaccination rates,” she said.
She pointed how, in the United Kingdom, the Delta variant has already overtaken the Alpha (UK or B.1.1.7) variant, which is 40 percent more transmissible than the original virus.
Dela Paz said the Delta currently accounts for more than 91 percent of UK COVID-19 cases, and is believed to be around 60 percent more transmissible than the Alpha variant.
As to the reported emergence of the “Delta plus” variant in India, she said: “There are only more than a dozen of cases of this supposed Delta plus variant. Even the Ministry of Health of India said they still need to evaluate this additional mutation of the original Delta variant.”
According to initial information, Delta plus supposedly contains a K417N mutation in its spike protein. It is has been declared by India’s health ministry as a variant of concern (VOC).
