If left unaddressed, the economic damage of climate change to the Philippines could reach up to 7.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030 and 13.6 percent of GDP by 2040, according to the World Bank.
Without action, climate change will impose substantial economic and human costs to the Philippines, affecting the poorest households the most, said Ndiamé Diop, World Bank country director for Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand, during the launch of the Philippines Country Climate and Development Report yesterday.
“Climate change is sometimes called a silent crisis, but in the Philippines, it’s not silent – it is an imposing problem and a real threat. If one wants to see the real impacts of climate change on people, on infrastructure and on activities, one can see it here in the Philippines. Unfortunately, climate change will continue and will accelerate. Temperatures in the Philippines will continue to rise by about one to two degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st century, depending on the climate scenario. Rainfall patterns will change and intensify, and extreme weather will become more frequent and stronger,” Diop said.
“The economic damage could reach up to 7.6 percent of GDP by 2030 and 13.6 percent of GDP by 2040. That is, GDP would be lower by that much if climate change is left unaddressed. All sectors will be affected, capital intensive sectors are likely to suffer most from extreme weather and agriculture will bear the brunt,” he added.
Diop said increased environmental shocks will stymie future gains in prosperity for poorer households which are more exposed to the effects of climate change, and they will have less ability to cope with shocks and are more likely to resort to negative coping mechanisms, such as selling productive assets or pulling children out of school.
“It is clear that adaptation must be a priority for the Philippines, and the good news is that much can be done, and the country is already doing a lot to reduce the threats. There is no shortage of programs and plans in the Philippines,” Diop said.
“What has been really the challenge is their fragmentation, their lack of coordination and their effective implementation. The report shows this very clearly, that full implementation and effective implementation of the climate actions program that exists already in the Philippines could reduce economic losses from climate change by two-thirds, and climate actions like investment in flood management in flood-prone areas, avoiding new constructions in floodplains in vulnerable coastal areas could reduce future losses. And further scaling up the existing program would help achieve these gains,” he added.
In the same event, Socioeconomic Chief Arsenio Balisacan said, “If we do not get our acts right soon, more communities will be routinely displaced, more economic activities disrupted, and more agricultural systems devastated due to these extreme, climate change-induced weather conditions.”
“Previously, the long-standing view had been the misperception that policymakers must choose between two seemingly opposing objectives: environmental preservation and economic growth. It would appear as if a choice always had to be made between the two. With the rapid advances in science and technology in recent years, however, it has not only been possible but imperative to choose both,” he added.
Balisacan said the fast and sustained growth of economies, especially emerging markets, must increasingly be supported by clean technologies.
