THE Department of Health (DOH) yesterday expressed concern that the continued upward trend in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in the Visayas and Mindanao regions could lead to a repeat of the April surge in the National Capital Region (NCR) and its neighboring provinces.
In a virtual press briefing, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said the DOH has already started giving special attention to the increasing number of cases in the two regions as early as last month “because we wouldn’t want to reach that point, where we are already seeing similarities of what happened in the NCR in the Visayas and Mindanao areas.”
COVID-19 cases in the NCR and the provinces of Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna and Rizal, or collectively called the NCR Plus, reached a peak of some 5,500 new cases per day back in early April. This prompted the national government to put the NCR Plus under enhanced community quarantine from March 29 to April 11.
Cases have since gone down to just over 1,000 as of late May, based on DOH data.
Last week, DOH Epidemiology Bureau Director Dr. Alethea de Guzman reported that all regions in the Visayas and Mindanao have continuously manifested upward trends in cases.
In the Visayas, DOH data shows growth in cases in Western Visayas (9%), Central Visayas (0.39%), and Eastern Visayas (24%).
In Mindanao, statistics show growth in cases in Zamboanga Peninsula (46%), Northern Mindanao (116%), Davao Region (52%), Soccsksargen (83%), Caraga (77%), and Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (59%).
Vergeire said the surge in cases in Visayas and Mindanao can be considered as multifactorial and cannot be attributed to only one.
“The factors that are in the Visayas and Mindanao are similar to the factors in the NCR. If you will look at the factors for transmission, they are all the same. When you look at the factors, it is multifactorial,” Vergeire said.
The factors include mobility of the people, delayed health-seeking behavior, and the presence of the different COVID-19 variants, among others.
In a bid to prevent a repeat of the NCR Plus experience, the health official said there is a need for the national government to already intervene and ensure that a similar surge won’t happen.
“As early as now, we are providing adequate support to these places so we can expand the capacity of their hospitals, testing capacity, and expand their medical equipment,” she said.
Presidential spokesman Harry Roque said the government must look into the possible imposition of a “higher quarantine classification” in regions outside of Metro Manila.
“The lockdown in the past few months was only in Luzon. So, it probably means we need to look into the possibility of higher quarantine classification in parts of the Visayas and Mindanao,” Roque said.
President Duterte was set to announce last night the latest quarantine classification for NCR Plus and the different parts of the country.
Roque said the presence of new COVID-19 variants may have contributed to the surge in cases in some areas, especially those that were not under strict community quarantines.
Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) chairman Benjur Abalos Jr. said Metro Manila mayors have recommended to the IATF the gradual reopening of businesses but with caution.
SLOWING DOWN
In its May 31 COVID-19 Bulletin, the independent OCTA Research Team noted that the downward trend in cases in Metro Manila and its neighboring provinces has already slowed down.
OCTA noted that in the NCR, the one-week growth rate was only at -1 percent for the period of May 24 to 30. This is lower when compared with the -23 percent, -27 percent, and -36 percent growth rates in the previous weeks.
The OCTA also noted that Cavite and Laguna have registered slight increases in new COVID-19 cases – 6 percent in Cavite, and 4 percent in Laguna.
On the other hand, Bulacan and Rizal both registered 0 percent change in the final week of May.
OCTA fellow Butch Ong said that while there has been a drop in COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila, this is still “not stable” as shown in the number of recorded cases that recently went up between 7,000 to 8,000 from between 4,000 to 5,000.
Ong said NCR’s reproduction number is now at 0.69, from 0.53 last week, while its positivity rate stood at 5 percent from 10 percent two weeks ago.
He cautioned against lowering quarantine restrictions in the country’s capital region.
Ong said OCTA also monitored an increase in cases in Isabela, Cagayan, Iloilo, Misamis Oriental, Davao del Sur, South Cotabato, and Camarines Sur which have been classified as “areas of concern” after recording high case growth rates of over 20 percent.
He said the highest positivity rate was in Camarines Sur (73 percent) and Palawan (53 percent), which indicates that more testing is needed in the two provinces. — With Jocelyn Montemayor