The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) has revised downward the growth targets for 2024 and 2025 to 6-7 percent and 6.5-7.5 percent, respectively.
Arsenio Balisacan, National Economic Development Authority (NEDA) director-general and planning secretary, in a briefing in Malacañang said growth targets were scaled down from 6.5 to 7.5 percent in 2024 and 6.5 to 8 percent in 2025.
Growth targets for 2026 to 2028 of 6 to 8 percent were retained.
Balisacan said the DBCC also retained the inflation target of 2 to 4 percent this year as the outlook considered the policy actions undertaken by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, and the monetary strategies and measures being implemented by the government.
The government expects to generate revenues of P4.27 trillion which is 16.1 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024, increasing to P6.078 trillion or 16.4 percent of GDP by 2028.
Balisacan said the revised targets took into consideration the country’s economic performance in 2023 and reflect the latest developments and expectations on external factors such as global demand and trade growth, oil price movements and expected exchange rate and inflation trends.
Balisacan expressed confidence the current growth targets would sustain the country’s position as one of the fastest growing emerging economies in the Asia-Pacific Region.
“Although we have to recuse in a way that is realistic and at the same time sustainable because our aim is to allow the opportunities for the economy to grow in a sustained basis and as you see, the economy will retain its position as one of the fastest growing economies,” he said.
He added with the current pace of growth, the country remains on track to reducing poverty incidence from 18 percent in 2021 to single digit level in 2028, as well as in achieving middle income status by the end of the term of President Marcos.
Balisacan said despite the anticipated risks, the administration is optimistic about the country’s sustained growth momentum.
He said through the Medium-Term Fiscal Program (MTFP), the government will improve its performance by way of enhancing tax administration.
He said the executive branch is also collaborating with Congress to streamline the passage of priority tax reform measures that will improve the revenue generation and adhere to fiscal requirements and current domestic developments.
Debt not a factor
Balisacan said the P15-trillion debt as of February was not a factor in adjusting growth targets, He said the current debt, while increasing, is proportional to the size of the economy.
Saying debt remains under control, Balisacan noted the rule of thumb for emerging economies is 70 percent of GDP.
“ …that is threshold. We are moving from 60 percent which is way below 60 to even lower of 55 — almost about 56 percent by the time we end the term of the current President,” he said.
Balisacan said the revised growth targets would also help reduce the country’s debt in the future.
He said the DBCC expects the deficit-to-GDP rate to fall from 5.6 percent in 2024 to 3.7 percent by 2028, and the debt-to-GDP ratio to drop from 60.3 percent in 2024 to 55.9 percent by 2028.
2025 budget
Balisacan said the DBCC has also proposed a P6.2- trillion budget for 2025 focused on delivering high-impact and transformative public infrastructure projects and essential social services especially for the poor and vulnerable.
Balisacan said next year’s budget will support the Marcos administration’s Build Better More Program to stay on course and maintain infrastructure spending between five to six percent of GDP from 2024 to 2028.
