DOH: Exception is NCR with slow decline
FROM a decline to plateauing, the country is again seeing a slight increase in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases amid the continued easing of quarantine restrictions in most parts of the country, the Department of Health (DOH) said yesterday.
In a virtual press briefing, DOH-Epidemiology Bureau (EB) chief Dr. Alethea de Guzman said they have recorded a 15 percent growth in cases from May 30 to June 12 as compared to May 16 to 29.
“The decline has actually really stalled. It is really slowing down. We have actually plateaued, and in the recent seven days, we’re seeing increases in our cases nationally,” said De Guzman.
She, however, quickly assured the public that “we are still at moderate risk, nationally.”
President Duterte on Monday night announced the new community quarantine classifications that will be in effect until the end of June. The National Capital Region and Bulacan are now under general community quarantine with restrictions; and Cavite, Laguna and Rizal under GCQ with heightened restrictions. Nine cities and 12 provinces are under the stricter modified enhanced community quarantine (MGCQ).
De Guzman said 36 priority areas have recorded either high growth in cases or average daily attack rates (ADAR), or both.
The local government units with high ADARS are Cagayan (13.71), Nueva Vizcaya (10.58), Isabela (8.83), Zambales (7.23), Bataan (10.35), Naga City (13.28), Iloilo City (23.61), Negros Oriental (10.91), Cagayan de Oro City (16.20), Davao City (10.27), Davao del Norte (7.35), South Cotabato (10.57), General Santos City (10.44), Lucena City (9.87), Laguna (7.74), Cotabato City (12.02), Butuan City (16.85), San Juan City (10.89), and Makati City (9.96).
Those with high growth rates are Albay (103%), Sorsogon (80%), Iloilo (103%), Guimaras (50%), Antique (49%), Zamboanga del Norte (47%), Zamboanga del Sur (26%), Misamis Occidental (29%), Bukidnon (30%), Davao de Oro (148%), Davao Occidental (133%), Quezon (21%), Oriental Mindoro (14%), and Surigao del Norte (67%).
“These 36 priority areas were flagged because their risk classification or their two-week growth rate or ADAR are at high risk already,” said De Guzman, adding that 20 of the 36 LGUs in the priority areas are from the Visayas and Mindanao regions.
De Guzman warned the trend can worsen if the public becomes lax in observing the minimum public health standards (MPHS) set by the government.
“If there are any super-spreader events, if we are not as effective in our MPHS, that plateau can be another uptick or increase in cases. Once we have super-spreader events, it is really possible that cases will increase again and we will see a spike in our cases,” De Guzman said.
VISMIN
De Guzman said cases in the Visayas region continue to climb steeply, while those in Mindanao LGUs have already slightly improved.
“We are seeing some improvements in Mindanao areas. It hasn’t significantly gone down, it’s almost a plateau after that initial rise. We have (also) seen over the last week that Visayas has the steepest increase in cases among all the island groups,” De Guzman said.
Data from the DOH shows that the growth rates in Mindanao for the period of May 30 to June 12 are as follows: Zamboanga Peninsula with -7 percent, Northern Mindanao with 24 percent, Davao Region with 109 percent, Soccsksargen with 67 percent, Caraga with 46 percent, and Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao with 34 percent.
On the other hand, the growth rates in the Visayas regions are Western Visayas with 63 percent, Central Visayas with 59 percent, and Eastern Visayas with 118 percent.
Tacloban City mayor Alfred Romualdez said the COVID-19 infection rate in his city has improved due to the implementation of stricter measures.
During the Laging Handa press briefing, Romualdez said the daily infection rate in the city is now 40 to 50, from a high of 80 to 10 last week.
DOH records show that the city has 3,348 COVID-19 cases as of Sunday. Of these, 2,877 have already recovered, 410 are active cases and 61 have died.
“One of the important things that we are doing here is we isolate you, whether you are positive or negative, if you are a close contact (of a COVID-19 positive),” said Romualdez, adding: “After five to seven days, we test you. If you are positive, then you remain (in isolation) for another 10 days to eight days. If you are negative, that is when we release you.”
He said the measure has been an “effective way of handling the situation” in the city.
Romualdez said that while the city is under modified general community quarantine (MGCQ), they are implementing health protocols set under the stricter general community quarantine (GCQ) classification.
He said he has also issued an executive order last week, banning social gatherings like fiestas. Tacloban City has 138 barangays, which celebrate fiestas in May and June. The city, according to Romualdez, is due to celebrate its fiesta on June 30.
Romualdez also said that the wearing of face masks when in public places has been the most effective way of bringing down infections. He said had been in close contact with COVID-19 positives but he has not contracted the disease because he always wears a face mask.
Romualdez said the city had a shortage of nurses two weeks ago when many healthworkers got infected with the virus following a surge of cases in the city. He said the city’s healthcare system got a boost after 30 to 40 nurses, who were recently deployed to the NCR, returned to the city.
“They just finished quarantine so they are now deployed to the different hospitals,” said Romualdez of the nurses. He said hospitals in the city cater not only to city residents but also those from six nearby provinces.
As to the vaccination program in the city, Romualdez said 15,300 residents have already been vaccinated, of which 9,000 have received the second dose.
Romualdez said some senior citizens are afraid to go out of their residence to be vaccinated for fear they will be exposed to the disease.
“Actually, the problem that we are seeing is they are afraid, not of the vaccine. They are afraid they will be exposed. That is why we are studying if we can do a door-to-door vaccination of the senior citizens because they are afraid to go out,” said Romualdez.
But while the entire country is seeing a slight increase in cases, the DOH noted how the National Capital Region (NCR) is still seeing a decline in cases, but at a slower pace.
Data shows that Metro Manila has a negative 16 percent growth rate over the past two weeks.
In actual numbers, NCR saw an average of 833 daily cases from June 7 to 13, from 997 average cases per day during the period May 31 to June 6.
As for the “Plus” areas of Bulacan, Rizal, Laguna, and Cavite, De Guzman said the four provinces have been showing inconsistent trends.
“In the Plus areas, the pattern is inconsistent. There will be times that it’s going up and then it will be going down. So, it is not a steady decline,” said De Guzman.
In terms of growth rate, all four provinces are still in the negative, particularly Laguna (-2%), Cavite (-9%), Bulacan (-13%), and Rizal (-28%).
As for their ADARs, only Laguna is at moderate risk with 7.74, while Cavite (6.33), Bulacan (4.73), and Rizal (4.07) are at low risk. — With Victor Reyes
