Decrease due to improved handling of patients
THE independent OCTA Research Team yesterday said the number of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) fatalities in the National Capital Region (NCR) have been on a steady decrease, mainly due to improved case handling of patients.
In a radio interview, OCTA Research fellow Guido David said that from an overall case fatality rate of 2.32 percent in 2020, the numbers have gradually declined to 1.06 percent (January to March 2021), 1.02 percent (April to May 2021), and 0.78 percent (June to July 6, 2021).
“This means there are now less than 1 out of every 100 COVID-19 cases dying due to COVID-19. In comparison to the CFR in the NCR in 2020, where more than 2 out of 100 cases were dying due to COVID-19,” said OCTA.
The group said the decrease in fatalities may be attributed to the continued improvement on how health care workers have been handling cases.
“The decrease in CFR may be largely attributed to improvements in treatment and management of COVID-19 cases, the continued improvement in efforts of our healthcare workers, and the efforts of the national and local governments in scaling up hospital capacity and equipment,” it said.
It also cited the launching of the national COVID-19 vaccination program as a huge factor in lessening mortalities.
“At least in part, it may be attributed to vaccination efforts, which began its rollout on March 1, 2021. It is clear that the inoculation of Filipinos, especially those in the A1 (healthcare workers), A2 (senior citizens), and A3 (people with co-morbidities) priority groups helped reduce deaths,” said OCTA.
While it noted a decline in Metro Manila fatalities, OCTA said cases in the NCR are seeing a slight uptick. “The reproduction number in the NCR has increased to 0.91 after remaining below 0.90 since April 21,” he said.
David said the slight increase may be attributed to the “occasional” surges in some Metro Manila LGUs, such as the cities of Navotas, Malabon, Las Piñas, Parañaque, Makati, Quezon, and Pasay.
“We are not yet alarmed since occasional outbreaks really happen in some LGUs. From time-to-time, they really happen. But the LGUs remain on top of it,” he said, without giving a more detailed explanation.
David likewise said cases are “plateauing” in at least six cities which have been identified as “areas of concern” outside of the NCR.
David said the cities of Davao, Bacolod, Cagayan de Oro, General Santos, Baguio, and Calamba “all have moderate or flat trends.”
“We really saw a slowdown in the growth in the areas of concern. There are some that are decreasing. Some are, at least, plateauing,” David said.
David said the reproduction rate in the six local government units (LGUs) are now only at 0.95 to 1.02, which is classified as “moderate risk” in reproduction rate standards.
David said OCTA is slightly concerned over the statuses of the cities of Iloilo, and Cebu, as he noted that Iloilo City still has an R naught of 1.16, while Cebu City’s reproduction number is at 1.34.
“The number is slowly increasing,” David said.
‘HIGH RISK’
OCTA likewise said the cities of Davao, Iloilo, General Santos, Baguio, Tagum, and Santa Rosa have all registered COVID-19 numbers that classify them as being “high risk” during the period of July 4 to 10.
In its latest report, OCTA said the cities had a range of 1 to 1.14 reproduction rate or infection rate for the past 14 days.
Infection rate between 0.9 to 1.1 is classified as being moderate, while 1.1 to 1.4 is classified as high.
Also, the six LGUs had a range of 8.72 to 23.42 incidence, which is the level of risk based on the 7-day average number of daily new cases per 100,000 people.
Incidence between 1 to 10 is categorized as moderate, while 10 to 25 is classified as high.
Finally, the cities tallied a 16 percent to 30 percent positive test rate range, based on a 7-day average.
A positive test rate between 10 percent to 20 percent is classified as being high, while those beyond 20 percent is considered very high.
The OCTA report also showed that Davao City continues to have the highest number of new cases per day at 234.
Davao City also has a utilization rate for its ICU beds at 94 percent, according to OCTA.
OCTA said the overall classification of the country remains “moderate risk,” pointing out that the overall reproduction rate is at 0.93, incidence rate at 4.82, and positivity rate at 11 percent.
As for the NCR, the OCTA data showed that it is also under the “moderate risk” classification.
The epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country has an average reproduction rate of 0.91, incidence rate of 4.78, and positivity rate of 6 percent.
