OCTA: More areas under low risk from virus
THE number of daily COVID-19 infections in the country is expected to drop to between 300 and 500 cases by the end of March as many areas in the country continue to fall under the “very low” to “low risk” classification.
The National Capital Region (NCR) or Metro Manila remains at “low risk” for COVID-19. It will be under Alert Level 1, along with 38 other areas, until March 15.
Guido David of the OCTA Research group said at the “Laging Handa” public briefing yesterday the decline in COVID cases continues but has slowed down because of the high vaccination rate and population protection.
Data from the National Vaccine Operations Center as of March 5 showed that 135.9 million doses have been administered nationwide, including 61.7 million as first dose. At least 63.7 million individuals are now fully vaccinated while 10.5 million have received booster shots.
David said the number cases is expected to continue to go down and reach the December level or prior to the onslaught of the Omicron variant of COVID-19.
“We expect the number to continue to go down. By end of March, it will possibly be a few hundreds, maybe 300 to 500,” he said in mixed English and Filipino.
He said the current number of cases is still on track in terms of OCTA’s projection of 1,000 cases or less than 1,000 cases daily by March. OCTA also previously said cases will be around 500 daily either mid-March or end-March.
David said to sustain the decline of cases, people must continue to follow health protocols such as wearing of face masks, and should get vaccinated or get their booster shots.
David said the cities of Angeles, Dagupan, Lucena, and Olongapo are now classified as “very low risk” COVID-19.
In a tweet message before the “Laging Handa” briefing, he said the cities of Baguio, Naga, and Santiago are also classified as “low risk.” In the Visayas, cities of Cebu, Lapu-Lapu, and Mandaue and Ormoc are also classified as a “low risk.”
David said the very low risk classification of Angeles, Dagupan, Lucena, and Olongapo is due to their “very low” growth rates (-62 percent to -30 percent); average daily attack rate (ADAR) which ranges from 0.35 to 0.55; reproduction numbers which are all below one; positivity rate (2-3 percent); and healthcare utilization rates (1-19 percent).
In the Visayas, Bacolod and Tacloban cities are classified as “very low risk” due to their “very low” growth rates of -56 and -43, respectively; reproduction number of 0.18 and 0.26; positivity rate of 2 and 3 percent; healthcare utilization rates of 17 and 30 percent; and ADAR of 0.90 for both.
NCR is at the low risk with a 3 percent positivity rate, growth rate of -24 percent, ADAR of 1.57, a reproduction number of 0.24 and hospital utilization rate of 23 percent.
David said only Puerto Princesa City is at the moderate risk level in Luzon due to its high positivity rate (38 percent) which may be due to lack of testing. Puerto Princesa has a growth rate of 48 percent, and ADAR of 1.68, a reproduction number of 0.48 and hospital utilization rate of 23 percent.
In the Visayas, Iloilo City is also classified as moderate risk with a positivity rate of eight percent, a growth rate of 23 percent, an ADAR of 8.15, a reproduction number of 0.54 and hospital utilization rate of 54 percent.
David said more provinces and cities are expected to be included in the Alert Level 1 category if the COVID cases in their area continues to drop while the vaccination rate continues to increase.
He appealed to the public to get their booster shots.
“We feel that many people no longer feel the sense of urgency of getting a booster because of the low number of COVID cases and the current Alert Level 1 in many places,” he said.
The country at present has received a total of 231.5 million vaccines including the 3.999 million doses of Pfizer vaccines, donated by the United States government through the COVAX Facility, that arrived Monday. Another shipment of 1.167 million doses of Pfizer vaccines bought by the government was expected to arrive Monday night.
